The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st in Polymarket has risen to 68%, with a 9% increase within 24 hours Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, with a 9% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are: if the International Monetary Fund Port Watch publishes a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz ("vessel arrivals") equal to or greater than 60 on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be judged as "yes", otherwise the market will be judged as "no". The daily number of arrivals of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll on/roll off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships that have not been reported by the International Monetary Fund's port observation will not be considered. It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan for Iran talks on Tuesday. In the latest phone interview, US President Trump stated that Iran "will engage in negotiations" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, but if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed the hope that both sides can reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He also defended the military action against Iran, stating that there was no other choice and that the final work would be completed. Odaily Seer's Prophet channel continues to monitor and predict the market, seeing changes before pricing.