Just saw that Mr. Yi @ Jackyi_1d shared several key points on BTC's future trend on Twitter 54 minutes ago. Let me break down some of his views: 1) I agree with the statement that we have been looking for a rebound rather than a reversal recently. The current rebound is only the fourth wave of dead cat rebound at the weekly level, not a reversal. The fourth wave of rebound is also coming to an end, and around April 22nd is the time window for the mid line trend to change; 2) So where is the key to rebound? We originally expected it to be around 85, but no one could pinpoint it accurately. He estimated that Bitcoin would rebound to around 85000, which is a very small probability. It is possible to touch the price of 80000. Now it depends on the final negotiation result between the US and Iran on the 22nd, whether it is bearish or bullish, which will determine the high point of BTC's subsequent rebound; 3) From the perspective of trading and cycles, there may be another major correction, which is also an excellent opportunity to buy at the bottom. "I agree with his viewpoint, but I believe that Bitcoin is not likely to have another major correction in the future, but there is a 99% probability that it will start a weekly level fifth wave of downward trend. I estimate that the final major bottom price of the BTC bear market will be between 38000-45000. The key time window for the change of trading on April 22nd, let's take a look at where the final negotiation result between the US and Iran will affect the high point of BTC price rebound.