
Adam|Apr 29, 2026 14:32
Oil still one of the most interesting markets to trade right now.
Hormuz closed, UAE exits OPEC, while large speculators are still at the 3rd percentile of 2Y positioning, so there are a lot of shorts into a possible supply shock.
The panic is pretty clear on the futures curve, which has stayed backwardated for two months now.
What I find pretty interesting is that options might be underpricing the move, with 20d realized vol at 98% while IV 30d sits at 69%.
All things considered, OTM calls are looking like a pretty cheap gamble if Trump plans to post more photos of him with a machine gun coming into summer.(Adam)
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