May Commodities Outlook - All About the Crude Surge, Which Typically Breaks Economies The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is predominant in commodities, raising risks of a typical pump-then-dump cycle akin to 2008 and 2022. US natural gas already has done so in 1Q. What stops crude oil from following a similar path -- up about 100% to down 30% -- in 2026? My analysis shows the metals sector is highly dependent on the US stock market for buoyancy and something rarely seen -- S&P 500 volatility staying so low, along with surging-gold and crude-risk metrics. Crude surges typically break stuff and the global economy may be leaning into recession. A top factor for copper to stay above $6 a pound may be for US equities to keep setting records. Conditions seem similar in grains vs. crude. Staying above corn and soybean $5- and $12-a- bushel ceilings may require WTI crude above $100 a barrel or a Corn Belt drought. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/teaxedkip3ip {BI COMD} #crudeoil #gold #commodities #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)