Friends who have not read my previous article may be confused about the recent market trend - BTC and XAU gold are still rebounding against the backdrop of high oil prices, and the US stock market has even directly emerged from an upward trend. This seems completely opposite to the traditional perception of 'crude oil rising → risk asset falling'. How to explain? In fact, this is exactly the core point that I repeatedly emphasized in my long article: do not use simple and crude "negative correlation" templates to set market trends, but break down the four independent main lines to see their dynamic weights: 1. Geopolitical supply logic: Oil prices remain high due to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz, but the worst-case long-term closure scenario has not yet occurred, and the market is trading with a "risk premium that exists but is controllable". 2. Global risk aversion: There is a demand for risk aversion, but it is not uniform. Funds did not fully risk off, but selectively flowed into AI technology stocks and Bitcoin (institutional ETF inflows+long-term growth narrative dominant). 3. US dollar interest rate suppression (the most crucial explanation for the weakness of gold): high oil prices push up inflation expectations → the Federal Reserve slows down the pace of interest rate cuts → the US dollar strengthens+real yields remain high, directly suppressing zero interest gold. Even if geopolitical risks drive up the demand for safe haven, interest rate logic tends to prevail in the short term. 4. Political cycle demands in the election: The Trump team has extremely high political sensitivity to high oil prices/inflation, and the market anticipates that "conflicts will not be indefinitely delayed and later policies will stabilize prices" in advance trading. This gives risky assets some resilience and room for rebound. The current period (April June) is an adjustment window dominated by geopolitical supply and interest rate suppression, and there is no contradiction in the selective rebound of risk assets that see through short-term noise. If the situation becomes clear in July and August, the turning point of the market is worth paying close attention to; There is a high probability of significant polarization before and after the November election. Breaking away from conventional thinking and independently breaking down the four main lines is the only way to truly understand the current and future market logic. Friends who have questions or different opinions are welcome to discuss in the comment section The above is an independent macro geopolitical framework analysis for reference only, without any investment opinions or suggestions.