链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|5月 08, 2026 14:02
Saylor sells BTC to pay dividends, but the narrative premium of never selling has begun to expire On May 5th, during the Q1 2026 earnings conference of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Saylor said the words that had been awaited by the market for five years - "We may sell a small portion of BTC to pay dividends, give the market a shot, and shut up the bears." MSTR fell 4% that day, BTC fell below $81000 at one point, and the probability of Polymarket selling BTC before the end of last year skyrocketed from a low to 40%. Strategy currently holds 818334 BTC, approximately $66 billion. The preferred stock (STRC 11.5% floating, STRK 8%, STRF, STRD) has an annual dividend obligation of approximately $1.5 billion. Q1 software business revenue was $124.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% - almost negligible in the face of a dividend of $1.5 billion. In addition, Q1 recorded a net loss of $12.54 billion, indicating a clear structural cash gap. The market sees it as bearish and hits the market, but I don't think we've seen the essence clearly. If you really want to sell, a 1% position would only be 8183 BTC, about 660 million US dollars, which is more than enough to cover a year's dividends and has almost no impact on spot liquidity. The daily trading volume of CME and spot markets far exceeds this level. Saylor himself framed the action as liquidity proof+counterattack against bears, and hinted that while selling, a new round of fundraising would continue to buy, and the company's net position would still increase. The real turning point lies in the narrative layer. Never sell has been the core premium source for Strategy over the past five years. The high premium of MSTR relative to NAV is essentially the money paid by the market for this commitment. Once Saylor relaxes, even if it's just a small, strategic loosening, the logical foundation of the premium begins to loosen. Deeper is the business model itself. The flywheel of preferred stock, continuous issuance, and BTC appreciation, which used to self circulate by rising coin prices in the past; But when software revenue only accounts for 8% of the dividend obligation and Q1 recorded a loss of billions, the flywheel has changed from winning twice when BTC rises to selling when BTC doesn't rise. This is not Bitcoin Maxi, this is a Bitcoin realist forced out by preferred stock dividends. In the medium to long term, the NAV premium of MSTR will systematically converge. It's not a big deal for BTC itself, MSTR holders need to be recalculated. Saylor has never been a religious leader, but a skilled capitalist. The market only realized today.
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