In the early morning of this morning, I suddenly saw that the United States attacked Iran. Although it had sunk six speedboats before, the specification of this attack was obviously improved. Of course, even if it did, the United States and Iran were still very restrained. In particular, Trump said that it was still in the ceasefire agreement, and this attack was only a small one. Iran, which has always been a powerful country, did not immediately choose to comprehensively upgrade. More importantly, it remained tough in words, leaving room for action. This actually indicates that neither the United States nor Iran wants to push the situation to a completely out of control situation now. What the United States wants is pressure, to force Iran to accept conditions, not to immediately start a full-scale war. What Iran wants is posture, to prove that it has not completely bowed down, but also to know that if the conflict really escalates to an uncontrollable level, it will be even more detrimental to itself. For the risk market, this situation is actually the most uncomfortable. Because as long as there is no complete loss of control, risk aversion will gradually decline. But as long as the United States and Iran continue to engage in small-scale exchanges, risky assets such as crude oil, gold, and Bitcoin will be repeatedly emotionally disturbed. Especially for crude oil, what truly determines the price is not just whether there is action taken, but whether the expected passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be stably restored. And the most troublesome thing is that CLUSDT's funding rate will be relatively high on weekends, and if WTI continues to fluctuate at a high level, it will be more difficult for short selling investors. Personally, I left around $96 early this morning and then started some small short selling at $97, mainly to avoid the weekend funding rate. However, if Binance corrects this problem, I can add it back at any time. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, it is still the same as before. The current impact on BTC price changes has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin itself. More importantly, it is the issue of the war between the United States and Iran, as well as the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether these two issues can be quickly resolved mainly affects whether the United States will cut interest rates in 2026. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout