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RamenPanda
RamenPanda|5月 14, 2026 07:10
People are curious why I have been focusing on non US markets recently. Why? CPO is my one theme multi head. The market has not yet noticed the sudden paradigm shift in the field of photonics... I am one of the few people who have laid out the current super cycle in advance by 2025, with prices of AAOI @~$30, LITE~$300s, and AXTI~$13 on X at that time... and there are actual receipts and evidence that others cannot display. CPO jumps from~$0 to a total addressable market opportunity of $91 billion. According to GS research, in the next year and a half. At the same time, the overall optical market reached 154 billion US dollars. Many players have little exposure to the current photonics cycle: ->In Europe, companies like SIVE or SOI that specialize in high-end laser design and substrates. ->In Taiwan, companies such as Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), and Shunsin (6451) are engaged in optical components and contract manufacturing. ->In Japan, a company engaged in laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. They suddenly became the dominant players of CPO. As for American players, their exposure is not high. But existing players such as LITE and COHR will still gain upward space from CPO, as this is their new growth vector. My reverse thinking process for current players: Most valuations have already included huge traditional pluggable income, which will inevitably face erosion over time, so the potential for re rating is limited unless someone uses leverage. Many of these purer CPO targets will rapidly soar from 0 to 100, once mass production begins in the second half of 2026 for scaling up (as a revenue bridge) and entering the second half of 2027 for scaling up (driven by large-scale growth). The market usually sets prices 8-12 months in advance... Despite any market fluctuations before that, my belief in the theme of supply chain research remains firm.
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