The bond market has raised interest rates ahead of schedule! Walsh hasn't taken office yet, BTC's troubles have arrived first! Guys, the Federal Reserve hasn't moved yet, the bond market has taken action first. Today's news is worth everyone's vigilance - US bond yields have surged across the board, reaching a new high since March 2025 for 2-year bonds and breaking through 5.07% for 30-year bonds. This is not that the Federal Reserve has really raised interest rates, but rather that the market is' helping the Fed raise interest rates in advance '. one ⃣ Let's take a look at this set of data first Changes in indicator values 2-year US Treasury yield of 4.065% hits new high since March 2025 The 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.530% hit a high since May 2025 The 30-year US Treasury yield of 5.071% has reached a new high since July 2025 Short end interest rates higher than the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range, leading to early tightening of financial conditions in the market two ⃣ What's the meaning of this? It's not the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, it's the "righteous police" in the bond market taking action. The market is tightening financial conditions ahead of schedule by increasing yields. Inflation cannot be suppressed (CPI 3.8%+PPI 6.0%), oil prices at $107, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts - the market is telling the Federal Reserve: if you don't raise interest rates, I will. CME interest rate futures display: ·Maintain interest rates unchanged within the year → Benchmark situation ·Probability of interest rate hike → currently rising (30-39%) The narrative has completely shifted from 'when to cut interest rates' to' whether to raise interest rates'. three ⃣ The impact on BTC: Four bearish combination punches The biggest fear in the cryptocurrency industry is not simply 'high interest rates', but the simultaneous occurrence of these four things: ⚠️ US Treasury yields rise → Global asset pricing anchor rises, risk assets under pressure ⚠️ US dollar strengthens → global liquidity tightens ⚠️ Expectations of interest rate cuts return to zero → Macro narrative turns bearish ⚠️ Withdrawal of Leveraged Funds → Exhaustion of Incremental Funds These four things are happening simultaneously. four ⃣ Confirmation of the market This message confirms our previous judgment: Firstly, macroeconomic suppression has shifted from being "neutral" to being "clearly bearish". CPI+PPI is a signal, and the upward trend in US Treasury yields is a pricing response in the market. Secondly, the probability of 82000-83000 being the endpoint of the fourth wave is increasing. Macro bearish sentiment+energy depletion+technical resistance, triple synergy. Thirdly, Powell's resignation today and the surge in US bond yields have added dual macroeconomic pressures. five ⃣ trading strategy Project proposal The current macro bearish trend is clear, with a focus on wait-and-see measures Short selling conditions rebound to 81500-82500, indicating a bearish signal The long condition is limited to the ultra short term rebound of 79000-79500 retracement Mid line empty orders 81500-82500 will be placed in batches, with a target of 78000-79000 six ⃣ Last sentence reminder The bond market is a gathering place for "smart money". The overall rise in US bond yields is a signal that deserves more attention than CPI. Walsh has not officially taken office yet, and the bond market has already added interest for him. The macro headwinds are strengthening, and the catalyst for the fifth wave of decline is gathering. @Dragonhau66 Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis: Mr. Xiaolong's US Bond Yield Soars, Bond Market Warning: Macro Negative