SpaceX's IPO is the largest IPO of the year, without a doubt. Today is the last day of fundraising, and the newly released funds will re-enter the market. At the last moment, Binance Wallet will also be shut down, and you can directly use USDC for subscription. It will end at 12:00 on June 12th, with different Alpha point limits, with a minimum limit of $20000. Many people are discussing how to participate and how much they can increase. But I have recently sorted through several dimensions of data, and to be frank, I think we need to calm down, especially when it comes to long-term acquisition after updating. 1. The macro environment has changed, and there is no difference between participating in SpaceX and buying stocks The US stock market has recently fallen significantly, and market sentiment has shifted from offensive to defensive. Participating in SpaceX's IPO in this environment is essentially similar to buying stocks directly in the secondary market. The market is beginning to compress valuations, and risk appetite is systematically decreasing. SpaceX's valuation is undoubtedly high, and funds will prioritize flowing towards targets with stable cash flow and certainty. SpaceX is a good company, but a good company does not necessarily mean a good price, especially in times of macroeconomic headwinds. Previously, participating in IPOs earned liquidity premiums and scarcity premiums. Now both premiums are shrinking. 2. Not breaking on the first day does not mean that the pricing is not expensive SpaceX's first day break rate is indeed not high (with a predicted market price break probability of only 25%), and many people take this as a signal of reasonable pricing. But not breaking on the first day and being priced cheap are two different things. Underwriters have sufficient means to maintain price stability on the first day, such as the green shoe mechanism and stable price operations, which are conventional tools. The real test is not on the first day, but in the following six months From historical data, the probability of a large IPO with high valuations falling within six months of listing is relatively high. The short-term enthusiasm of the market for IPOs often masks the fact that valuations are overvalued. Only when the lock up period ends, insiders begin to reduce their holdings, and market sentiment returns to rationality, will prices truly reflect fundamentals. 3. How many buying orders are there for unlocking release and index configuration? Many people are hoping for passive funding to take over. This logic needs to be calculated. The NASDAQ index is weighted based on the proportion of circulating market value. SpaceX went public at an issue price of $1.75 trillion, assuming a low initial circulation ratio, the actual effective circulating market value calculated by the index will be discounted. Nevertheless, index funds and ETFs do passively buy based on their weights. This part of the buying order is confirmed. The key question is: Can passive buying catch the unlocking selling pressure? From the experience of large technology IPOs in the past, passive buying usually only absorbs a portion of the selling pressure. If the market sentiment is not good or the macro environment continues to deteriorate, the unlocking period is often the low point of the stock price. 4. Is the issuance price of 1.75 trillion yuan expensive? The issuance price of SpaceX corresponds to a market value of $1.75 trillion. If it rises to 2 trillion, it will be a+14.3% increase in space. Compared to Amazon, the market value is 2.56 trillion yuan. Meta's market value is 1.45 trillion yuan. But there is a huge gap in the quality of income Amazon's revenue structure is e-commerce+AWS. Although e-commerce has low profits, it has strong economies of scale and stable cash flow. The 2.56 trillion yuan supported by these two businesses has a profit foundation. Meta's core of 1.45 trillion yuan is advertising revenue. The gross profit margin of advertising business is high, with strong predictability and solid revenue quality. What about SpaceX? The revenue mainly comes from rocket launch services and Starlink satellite Internet. The growth is indeed fast, but rocket launches are project-based revenue and the pace is unstable. Although Starlink is expanding, its current revenue volume and profit margin are not small compared to Amazon's AWS or Meta's advertising business. A valuation of 1.75 trillion yuan corresponds to a company whose revenue quality and profit certainty are significantly lower than those of a comparable company. It's not that SpaceX is bad, it's that the market has already overdrawn a lot for its future. So what is my conclusion? There is no doubt that SpaceX is a great company. But in this macro environment, this issuance pricing, and this revenue quality, the risk return ratio for participating in IPOs is not good. Not breaking on the first day does not mean it is not expensive, index buying may not necessarily catch the unlocking selling pressure, and there is a clear quality gap in revenue between Amazon and Meta with a valuation of 1.75 trillion yuan. If you are optimistic about the long-term value of SpaceX, I don't think it's urgent. Wait a minute, the market is likely to give you a better price within six months.