The Federal Reserve will make a decision at 2:00 am this morning, and then a press conference will be held at 2:30 am. The highly anticipated debut of Walsh is coming. The previous judgment that the short-term peak of several targets has been reached is currently correct, and the market has indeed chosen to temporarily profit and hedge the risks before and after FOMC. Let's take a detailed look ahead at the highlights of this FOMC meeting: 1. The interest rate remains unchanged, and it will not increase or decrease this time 2. The dot matrix may be very eagle, with the mid year value dropping from once to nothing, but the importance of this dot matrix has been diluted by Walsh The highlight is Walsh's speech The previous market decline was due to trading expectations of interest rate hikes. After the release of CPI data, the expectation of interest rate hikes was significantly alleviated but not completely eliminated. Tonight, as long as the neutral and dovish expectations are maintained, it will be a positive news in Walsh's speech. From the perspective of Walsh's own situation, he is strongly supported by Trump. It must be a reward for his hard work to get the position of chairman of the Federal Reserve, but his methods need to be very cautious. If the interest rate cut is very low and straight, the market will discount it as a political operation, and the transmission of interest rate cut will be abolished if the long end is thrown away and the financial conditions are tightened, which is tantamount to helping Trump. So the truly advanced way of repaying kindness is to first establish the signs of credit and anti inflation, and then lower them later (after the midterm elections or when the data really supports them), so that the knife can be cut and transmitted. But Walsh's proposition has always been clear to the market, which is to cut interest rates while reducing balance sheets, so tonight's debut will depend on how he will express the statement of reducing balance sheets. Another point that is also very meaningful for the market is that major institutions, funds, and models need to accumulate more data on Walsh's speaking style and work style to predict operations in advance in the future. This is very important every time there is a change of chairman, but it is even more important in the era of AI. His pace, vocabulary, and qualitative framework are all studied under a magnifying glass. Walsh himself has repeatedly proposed changing the Federal Reserve's style of doing things, such as adopting more covert and low-key measures, and no longer issuing forward guidance. In short, as long as Walsh is not an eagle, he is still a dove, and I am very optimistic that he can promote a red envelope market tonight.