The market is waiting for tonight's FOMC meeting (2am) and Walsh's debut (2:30am) Predict tonight's wind direction to be neutral and biased towards eagles Derive from the following points: 1、 Firstly, the interest rate decision is definitely to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% -3.75%, and the dot matrix should not show clear forward guidance From this perspective, it seems that there is no interest rate hike or signal of interest rate cut, and the market may be disappointed with the lack of interest rate cut expectations and experience a slight correction. 2、 Also, it depends on what signals will be conveyed in Walsh's speech It can be inferred that Walsh's core speech should be to downplay the call for interest rate cuts. Although he will not raise interest rates, if he does not release a signal of interest rate cuts, the market will be defined as a neutral eagle. From several points, we can roughly estimate the content of the speech: 1. Although oil prices have decreased, inflation remains high (neutral to hawkish) 2. Non farm employment data is still strong, resilient, and the economic situation is good. There is no rush to loosen prematurely (implying no rush to cut interest rates, neutral biased towards hawks) 3. Previously, it was analyzed that Walsh's style did not align with Powell's guidance on future trends. Therefore, Walsh is likely to emphasize that future meetings will depend on data (without providing expectations for future trends, neutral biased towards hawks) 4. Regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, Walsh's attitude is that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is clearly emphasized, the US dollar will stabilize; If the statement is ambiguous and vague, the market may worry about the independence of the Federal Reserve, the decline of the US dollar, and the rebound of gold and cryptocurrency. In summary, tonight is highly likely to be neutral and bullish. If the core statement of the gold cryptocurrency market is that the interest rate remains unchanged this time, while acknowledging the risk of a cooling of the US and Iran and a decline in oil prices, it may lead the market to interpret the interest rate hike as not urgent and leaning towards dovish, then gold cryptocurrency will rebound. Everyone will read the above tonight, and I will verify the interpretation tomorrow morning.