[Analyst: Circulating Loss Ratio in This BTC Bear Market Rises to 54%, May Surpass the Previous Cycle's Peak] According to a report by Jinse Finance, on July 2, crypto analyst Murphy stated in an article that the circulating loss ratio can be used to compare the 'pain level' of investors in different bear market cycles, which quantifies the extreme range of market sentiment. Due to factors such as the sedimentation of low-cost chips, the higher bottom of the bear market, and a more mature holder structure, the circulating loss ratio at the bottom of each bear market has been decreasing compared to the previous cycle. For example, the peak in 2015 was 64%, in 2019 it was 60%, and in 2022 it was 55%. On June 30, when BTC dropped to $58,000, this ratio rose to 54%. This is the highest value observed so far in this cycle. If the decreasing trend of the past 10 years continues, then 54% is already very close to the extreme peak of the previous cycle, indicating that $58,000 is likely very close to the bottom. However, I have recently been pondering a question: in this bull market cycle, a large portion of ancient low-cost chips was moved, and major institutions bought in at high levels, which have since remained largely stagnant. This has caused the overall cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) to shift upward. These chips are now in an unrealized loss state, and if they remain unmoved, the base of loss-making chips will grow larger. Could this break the historical pattern, meaning that the circulating loss ratio in this bear market bottom might exceed the previous peak of 55%? I think this is possible. However, my personal judgment is that even if it exceeds, the difference will not be too significant, likely staying within the range of 55-60%.