Today's market (1) What does a rebound that continues to flow out of ETFs mean? Today, let's first look at the on chain. Although the ETF has been experiencing a daily outflow of 200-300 million in the past two days, why was it still able to rebound by 3000 points after hitting 58k yesterday? The biggest factor is that there have been fewer coins transferred to the exchange on the chain from yesterday to today From 20000 to 30000 pieces per day, it has decreased to 2000 to 3000 pieces yesterday. At the same time, the daily realized losses have decreased from over a billion in the previous two days to 370 million yesterday. There are fewer people cutting meat. The reason for cutting less meat is also because it has reached a truly affordable floor price on the chain. The marginal sellers who are most prone to panic have been almost overwhelmed. -------------- However, there are no signals from the demand side yet, ETFs have not turned positive, and Coinbase has not turned positive . Currently, there is still a pile of interlocking disks above. The average cost for buyers from 1 week to 1 month is 6W6, and the cost for 1-3 months is 7W4 Every time the price bounces, it hits the locking plate. ------------- So to summarize, the rebound from yesterday to today=price pushed down to cheap floor price+seller exhaustion+short selling squeezed rebound. The buying market has not returned yet. The sustainability of this rebound depends entirely on whether the demand side (such as ETFs) can turn. There is currently no confirmed signal. So for now, we can only deal with it as an oversold rebound. To reverse, we need to see three signals of demand return: continuous net inflows of ETFs+positive coinbase premiums+re expansion of stablecoin supply. So for now, we will continue to look at large-scale fluctuations . The upper edge of the interval is a ridge at 62k, while 66k is a larger ridge. The lower edge is still the upper range of 55k that has been continuously posted in the previous few lines, and the demand area of the giant whale+the cost area of the entire chain is 53k (the true range of bears per round) ------------------- Next article, let's take a look at today's intraday