Aaron Dishner|7月 04, 2026 02:55
Hey guys, welcome back. BTC closed inside of the TBO cloud, up 1.66% on Friday, my third green day in a row, the first close inside since it fell out back on May 26. My macro trend is still bearish since all four TBO lines point down, but I'm expecting Bitcoin to stay bullish through July after catching a bullish OBV cross above the 21SMA on Thursday. I'm watching for this week's candle to close above last week's high at 65,622, which is a tall order, but Bitcoin's RSI at 59.69 tells me there's still room to run before overbought.
Ethereum had a fantastic day too, closing up 3.3% and shooting up 14% since Wednesday, with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly and a bullish RSI reset that I like a lot, targeting around 2,080. Solana dropped another 1.9% and remains in bearish consolidation, which I actually see as healthy given Bitcoin dominance staying bearish, since that's keeping alts strong. My total altcoin cap chart closed inside the cloud with a bullish OBV cross too, which I think marks the start of a regime shift, though I'm still telling anyone on a DCA strategy to keep taking profits since we're in a macro bear market overall.
On the TradFi side, I saw a bearish TBO reversal print on Thursday plus a wick into the cloud, so I'm on the fence there, watching the Dixie closely since a break above 102 would be real trouble. The Nikkei and KOSPI both bounced, oil stayed oversold for a tenth straight bar, and gold and silver both printed TBO reversal signs that I'm watching for a tag of the fast line before I'd consider taking profit or flipping short. For my picks, I bought Bitcoin cash on its RSI reset, I'm watching Solana, Farcoin, and Whiff for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho and Aerodrome as showing early bearish reversal signs worth watching this weekend.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin closes inside the TBO cloud
02:46 Ethereum strength and RSI room
04:53 Bitcoin dominance and altcoin breadth
06:53 TradFi setup, Dixie, and USDJPY
09:27 Nikkei, KOSPI, oil, gold, and silver
12:01 Better Traders resources and bot trading
14:17 Kraken, prop trading, Phemex, and AFX
16:20 Bitcoin Cash, Solana, and TBO close shorts
18:30 XRP, SUI, PEPE, VVV, and LAB warnings
20:56 XLM, ALLO, GWEI, FAI, and Fetch
23:21 Micron and MELI pullback setups(Aaron Dishner)
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