#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the market currently pricing in a 93.1% probability of a hold and a 6.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. While the ADP and initial jobless claims data have led to some increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, the probability of a hold remains dominant. The market expects a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March, a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut, and a 58.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low at 6.9%. This suggests that the market widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting, continuing to monitor economic data and assess inflation and labor market conditions. Although market expectations for a rate cut in March have risen, for now, the Fed is most likely to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, reaching over 95.2%.
The market expects a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the March meeting, with a probability of more than 35% for a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, market expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January have declined.
There are disagreements in the market about the Fed's future policy direction. Some believe the Fed may cut interest rates at the March meeting, while others believe the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged.