#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. Currently, the market expects a 93.1% probability of a rate hold and a 6.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. While the ADP and initial jobless claims data released recently have increased market expectations for a rate cut, overall, the market still believes that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance in the near term.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The odds of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its January meeting are very high. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Nevertheless, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its March meeting remains above 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is also above 30%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to take rate-cutting measures in the coming months. This is mainly because recent economic data have shown that inflationary pressures have eased, but economic growth has also shown signs of slowing, and the Fed needs to balance inflation and economic growth.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, currently at 93.1%,
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points is low, currently at 6.9%.
The market is divided on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy, but it is generally believed that the possibility of a rate cut is high.