#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the market currently predicting a 93.1% probability of a hold and a 6.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. This forecast comes after the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, which previously saw a 95.2% probability of a hold. While the market expects a rate cut in March, it currently predicts a 58.6% probability of keeping rates at their current level, a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to the CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the probability of a rate cut increased after the data release, the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged still dominates. This suggests that the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold and wait for more economic data to assess inflation and economic growth before deciding whether to adjust its interest rate policy.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is extremely high, currently exceeding 90%,
The market expects an increased likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in March.
Following the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have risen.
The possibility of the Fed cutting rates in the coming months still exists, but the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged is currently greater.