#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut has increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. Even after the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged remained high at 93.1%, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut only at 6.9%. This indicates that the market widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and not change its interest rate policy. Although market expectations for a rate cut in March have risen, for now, the Fed is most likely to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently over 90%,
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, but the probability is relatively low.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut have risen.
CME's 'Fed Watch' data shows that market expectations for the Fed's future interest rate path are volatile.