#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Fed is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the probability at 95.2% according to CME's "FedWatch" before the ADP data release. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability dropped to 93.1%. Nevertheless, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in the coming months, with a 58.6% probability of keeping the current rate unchanged in March, a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 6.9%. This indicates that the market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January and anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in the coming months. While the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in March is 58.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.6%, indicating that the market is cautious about the possibility of rate cuts in the coming months.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently over 90%,
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, but the possibility is lower than keeping rates unchanged in January.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January has risen.
The Fed's observation tools show that there is volatility in the market's expectations for the future path of Fed interest rates.