#Bitcoin Breaks Support#

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Overview

Bitcoin is facing the risk of losing key support levels in recent times, primarily due to the decline in risk assets, the rise in the US dollar index and US treasury yields. The release of the nonfarm payrolls report exacerbated this trend, causing Bitcoin to drop 2% and hovering around the key support zone between $90,000 and $93,000. Some investment banks believe that the Fed rate cut cycle is over, with Bank of America even hinting at a possible rate hike, further adding to Bitcoin's downtrend. Despite this, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor indicated that he may buy more Bitcoin, which might ease some negative market sentiment. However, the 30-day moving average of the Coinbase-Binance BTC price difference has fallen to its lowest level since at least 2019, indicating a weakening of domestic US demand, and the crypto market may focus on President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 and the ongoing FTX claims distribution in the near term.

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Analysis

Bitcoin is currently at risk of losing key support levels, driven primarily by a decline in risk assets, with the dollar index and US Treasury yields rising after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Additionally, some investment banks believe the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is over, with Bank of America even hinting at possible rate hikes, further adding to Bitcoin's pressure. While some observers believe Bitcoin prices could dip to $70,000 before rebounding, the 30-day moving average of the Coinbase-Binance BTC price differential has fallen to its lowest level since at least 2019, indicating weakening domestic demand in the US. The crypto market is currently likely to focus on President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 and the ongoing FTX claims distribution.

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Bitcoin faces the risk of losing a key support level as traders sell risk assets, leading to a decline in its price.

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The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, adding to the downward pressure on Bitcoin.

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Some investment banks believe that the Fed's rate cut cycle is over, and Bank of America has hinted at a potential rate hike, further increasing the downside risk for Bitcoin.

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Consensus expects Bitcoin to fall to $70,000 before rising again.

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