#The probability of Trump having a Bitcoin reserve has risen to 68.8%.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The possibility of Donald Trump establishing a US national bitcoin reserve is rising. On the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of this event has risen from 40% on January 10 to 68.8% currently. This change may be related to Donald Trump Jr. being a strategic advisor at Kalshi. Additionally, Kalshi states that the probability of Trump establishing a US national bitcoin reserve in 2025 is 70%. While the possibility of this event remains controversial, the rise in its probability suggests a changing perception of Trump's future policies.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The probability of "Trump will create a national Bitcoin reserve this year" on the prediction market Kalshi has risen to 68.8%, up from 40% on January 10th, when the crypto market bottomed out. This increase in probability suggests a change in market expectations about potential policy actions Trump may take in the future. Notably, Donald Trump Jr., Trump's eldest son, announced on October 13th that he would be serving as a strategic advisor for the prediction market Kalshi, which may also have influenced market expectations. While it remains unclear whether Trump will actually establish a US national Bitcoin reserve, the shift in this prediction market reflects a rising level of market attention to this event.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The likelihood of Trump establishing a US national bitcoin reserve in 2025 is high, with the current probability rising to 68.8%,
Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as a strategic advisor to the prediction market Kalshi, which may have driven the probability of this event to rise,
After the crypto market bottomed out, there was an increase in expectations that Trump would establish a national bitcoin reserve,
The probability prediction for Trump establishing a national bitcoin reserve on the prediction market Kalshi reflects the market's expectations and likelihood of this event