#The Fed is poised to raise interest rates.#

Although recent US inflation data has eased and reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut, some bond traders are betting against the trend, believing the Fed's next move will be a rate hike rather than a cut. This reverse bet stems from the strong jobs report released on January 10, which showed a robust US job market and suggested that inflationary pressures could persist. While the market generally anticipates at least one rate cut this year, these traders believe the Fed may choose to raise rates to control inflation. An institutional analysis shows that traders currently assess the probability of the Fed raising rates by the end of the year at about 25%, a figure that reached as high as 30% before the CPI data was released. Although the likelihood of a rate hike remains relatively low, this reverse bet indicates a divergence of opinion in the market about the Fed's future actions, and the Fed's policy direction in the coming months will continue to be closely watched.