Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 26, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 45.59% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 58.88% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 80.40% SPX 30D ATM IV: 16.85% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 21.96% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 13.75% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.48% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.09% Affected by quarterly settlement, the crypto market remains relatively stable. However, the brewing of macro uncertainty has limited the further decline of risk aversion, making investors hesitant again when facing assets pegged to the US dollar. Affected by Trump's repeated tariff policies and "Signalgate", investors' confidence, which has finally accumulated some, has been suppressed again. However, it is obvious that investors are more likely to hold cash and wait and see rather than leave. As a result, only US stocks have been significantly affected, while the DXY index and Treasury bonds have performed steadily. Another affected is commodities. Affected by the copper tariffs that may be implemented at any time, the price of the front-month copper futures contract once jumped nearly 3%. Although the price has fallen back, the price of copper has risen by 15.33% in the past month, and the YTD increase has been close to 30%. Facts from the commodity market show that significant and persistent uncertainty is still affecting risky assets. In the crypto derivatives market, investors have also expressed similar expectations. Expectations for the performance of BTC and ETH have converged in recent days: investors believe that the probability of a certain correction in April is increasing for both, while fluctuations will be the main trend in May. More gains will occur after June, which coincides with the estimated time of the Fed's new round of rate cuts. One of the few good news is that Delta 1's market sentiment has somewhat recovered. The forward implied yield of BTC has risen to 6.5%, and the implied forward yield of ETH has finally risen to above 6%. The above situation means that the demand for long positions in futures contracts has recovered. Even if prices fall, traders tend to believe the price drop is temporary. However, high-risk aversion has always been an important factor limiting the performance of the crypto market; we need to be careful about the additional impact that risk aversion may have on the crypto market after settlement.