Last week's US UK trade agreement and this week's US China joint statement have failed to stop the upward trend of US bond yields. Of course, the logic behind it has also changed: behind the three kills of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange in April was the market's shaken confidence in the safety foundation of US dollar assets; The recent sustained upward trend should be due to the elimination of recession fears and re inflation expectations (the CPI data of April on Tuesday night did not completely dispel the market's worries about inflation). This logic is very consistent with the logic of the US bond trend of Trump's winning market in the fourth quarter of last year. The continuous increase in US bond yields is indeed a hidden concern that the market should pay attention to: normally, there is a threshold of around 4.6% (based on empirical data, looking at market conditions from September to October 2023 and December to January 2025) above which the impact on the market is very direct, and the higher the price, the greater the market pressure. What situations can be alleviated: 1. Tonight's PPI data, as an upstream indicator of CPI, can reveal some potential inflation trends for May. 2. Policy interventions, calls from Besent/Treasury Department buybacks, or Powell's easing of attitude will all lead to a weakening of yields, but in the short term, there is still some distance to go before they make a statement on US bond yields.