Using the issue of Guilin as an example, we will discuss the impact and transmission path of tariffs on inflation. Inflation is composed of energy inflation, commodity inflation, and service industry inflation (which can be further divided into housing inflation and super core inflation other than housing). This super core inflation is closely related to consumption, travel, and offline entertainment. To look at the trend of inflation, it actually depends on how each item should be segmented and how it should proceed The most direct impact of tariffs is commodity inflation; But it is also due to the impact of tariffs and uncertainty that the confidence of residents and small and medium-sized enterprises has plummeted. However, the direct impact is that residents are very cautious and unwilling to spend money on consumption, and small and medium-sized enterprises no longer pay attention to expansion. This will naturally lead to weakened consumption, reduced travel, and local entertainment. In this case, the service industry may weaken. On the other hand, the weakening of oil prices has also led to a weakening of energy inflation. So in March, we talked about the direct impact of tariffs on inflation, which to some extent had a multiplier effect: the weakening of the service industry and energy offset the strengthening of goods. Previously, many people only focused on commodity inflation and overlooked the hedging effect of a weakening in the energy and service industries. However, it is difficult to accurately calculate the degree of hedging. Did you happen to see @ AnnaEconomist last night at https://(x.com)/annaeconomic/status/1923008098341409238? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A also discussed a similar viewpoint: -The transmission effect of tariffs on commodity prices is enhanced -Deflation in the service industry offsets the increase in tariffs -The net impact is deflation. In terms of the service industry, the final demand prices for transportation, warehousing, and construction are very weak.