How Prediction Markets Create Belief and why it's BAD Short version: I’ve said it from day one It's still a debate if Prediction Markets are just a more advanced form of betting. Some say no, others say yes (I am the others) If I bet on a specific boxer, I do it because I feel like he might be stronger and have more chances to win. If I bet on Polymarket on a specific boxer, then I am using the same info, but the coefficients might be just different because it should be PvP, not PvE. So if we exclude the PvE, then it doesn't really matter where to bet, the better coefficients are the only thing that matters (also matters till what moment we can place a bet) ----- Many KOLs are pushing PMs hard. No hate. That is their opinion (I hope). New users and small kols see the hype and treat it like a new meta, the same way they chased memes. The truth is less shiny. Most markets are thin, easy to steer, and the odds themselves can change what people think. That mix is bad for most people. ----- The sales pitch vs reality The pitch says markets reveal truth. Money on the line. Wisdom of crowds. Nice story. Reality is messier. Once the odds are public, many people start trusting the number more than their own judgment. The media quotes the line. Traders repeat it. New users follow it. The price stops reflecting belief and starts creating it. ----- How prices become persuasion This is human nature. Show a strong signal and the crowd copies it. One push to 65% or 70% reads like a fact from someone smarter than you. After that, people do not ask why it moved. They ask how to join it. Headlines reinforce it. The loop closes. Opinions move the market at first. Then the market moves opinions. ----- Why is it so easy to rig? Most crypto prediction markets are not deep. A single whale can move the vote. Once the % moves, the crowd moves with it. You get a clean number that looks official. That number drags in more buyers. The push buys time and attention. By the time better info arrives, a lot of traders are already on the wrong side. ----- Where the real edge lives If you insist on playing, there are only three edges that make sense. 1) Cross-market arbitrage. Prices on the same event can differ across venues and currencies. If you can move fast and size correctly, that spread is your paycheck. 2) Being the LP. Provide liquidity and collect a cut of the action. Expect less than two percent of volume in fees on many polls. Boring. Slow. But at least it is a system, not a guess. @PixOnChain explained this very well here → https://x.com/PixOnChain/status/1959283346418127117 3) Be closer than others to the needed source of info Everything else is a play with odds, the same as sport betting. You are not reading the future. You and the crowd try to predict it (until someone with much more resources than you join) ----- The new user trap KOLs say prediction markets are the next big thing. Again, no hate. They are free to like the idea. The problem starts when new users hear that and think it is a fresh, low-risk narrative, where everything depends on user. ----- How to not get farmed > Treat all odds jump as a rumor with a budget behind it. > Ask who benefits if you believe that number. > Check depth, not just the headline percentage. > If the story arrives after the move, be careful. > Is there someone, who can get info earlier and outplay you? > If u r not doing arb or LP or 100% into the event - skip it. ----- Bottom line Prediction markets will not be a magic truth engine in 100/100 cases. They are betting with better branding. Odds can shape belief. Belief can shape reality. That loop is powerful and easy to abuse. If you are not exploiting spreads or earning LP fees or have the best sources of info, you are the customer. And in betting, the customers lose long term. I want to friendly debate with minds of X, because I still don't get it how they don't see the potential dark side behind PMs or why they don't want to see it. Or maybe I am exaggerating things and PMs are a good thing for humanity without ability to change and manipulate people's minds. @0xCheeezzyyyy @0xNairolf @0xTone @0xwondr @aulijk @Baheet_ @bebeckhardt @carlosindex02 @Defi0xJeff @factcheck1ntern @gdkairos @j0hnwang @knowerofmarkets @PixOnChain @Prithvir12 @shayne_coplan @TakeorMake(Hanzo ㊗️)