1. Market Observation
Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Adriana Kugler for the remainder of her term until January 2026. Miran has long supported Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and has proposed structural reforms for the Federal Reserve, including stripping it of its bank regulatory powers, which some observers view as a significant challenge to central bank independence. Although Miran's term only lasts until January next year, and the Senate confirmation process may delay his participation in the FOMC meeting on September 16-17, the market has interpreted this as a clear signal of a shift towards looser monetary policy. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Labor and other agencies to reassess and facilitate the investment of retirement savings plans like 401(k)s in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
In response, Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen predicts that if crypto assets occupy 1% to 10% of 401(k) plans, it could lead to an influx of $80 billion to $800 billion. Analyst Phyrex believes that the impact of this initiative is comparable to the approval of a spot ETF, marking Bitcoin's formal entry into mainstream compliant investment channels and becoming an allocation option for retirement plans. This will introduce a large amount of stable long-term capital, helping to reduce market volatility and further solidifying Bitcoin's status as "digital gold," while also paving the way for other countries to follow suit and for the compliant development of RWA and DeFi.
In the domestic market, companies like Caocao Travel and other Hong Kong stocks are competing to lay out RWA, driving corresponding stock price growth. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding points out that companies with strong RWA tokenization capabilities, as well as those with robust R&D strength in areas like smart contracts, cross-chain technology, or metaverse applications, will have a competitive advantage. These companies can leverage technological innovation to bring traditional assets like real estate and bonds onto the blockchain, thereby enhancing asset liquidity and optimizing investment portfolios. Ding also warns that investors should be cautious of companies that merely chase trends without substantial technological investment and long-term strategic planning. Such companies often rely excessively on market speculation, and their projects may damage investor confidence and trigger regulatory risks due to a disconnect from real user needs. Therefore, listed companies should ensure that their Web 3.0 layouts are deeply integrated with their core businesses to avoid blindly following trends.
Bitcoin broke through $117,500 this morning. CryptoQuant's weekly report indicates that after BTC prices reached an all-time high of about $123,000 in July, it entered a "bullish cooling" phase and a narrow fluctuation phase due to slowed liquidity and profit-taking. The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could serve as a bullish catalyst. Glassnode has observed that the overall supply in the $110,000 to $116,000 range remains light, and the market may need more time to accumulate to form a new support base. If the market fails to break through the resistance at $116,900, it may face further declines to $110,000; however, the cost line for short-term holders at $106,000 still provides support. Analyst KillaXBT points out that holding the monthly opening price of $115,600 is key to maintaining the upward trend, while trader Rekt Capital believes that $117,200 is the current key resistance level that needs to be confirmed. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn notes that the current Bitcoin price has surpassed the cost price of short-term holders at $117,600, which may trigger profit-taking. On-chain data analysis firm Sentora indicates that although about 95% of addresses are in profit, there is significant resistance in the $116,000 to $119,000 range, as many holders who bought in this range are still at a loss. Trader CrypNuevo also points out that market liquidity is advancing towards the next liquidity target of $119,000 after reaching $116,800. However, signs such as increased Bitcoin outflows from exchanges and continued net inflows to whale addresses indicate tightening supply, with the risk-reward structure skewed to the upside. If it successfully breaks through $119,000, it may initiate a new round of increases.
Ethereum broke through its recent historical high this morning. Analyst Jelle notes that as the price approaches the psychological barrier of $4,000, a breakthrough could establish this level as solid support. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that Ethereum's strength is a precursor to an explosion in the altcoin market, suggesting that altcoins may see increases of 200% to 500% in the coming months. Analysis from Altcoin Vector also shows that the ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded about 75% from its May low, successfully breaking the downward trend, injecting positive momentum into the entire altcoin sector. Institutional interest is also strong, with Nate Geraci revealing that since June, Ethereum treasury companies and spot ETFs have cumulatively purchased about 1.6% of the total supply of Ethereum, while Nasdaq-listed Fundamental Global plans to raise up to $5 billion to purchase Ethereum. Against this backdrop, Fundstrat's Tom Lee even made an optimistic prediction that Ethereum prices could reach $16,000.
2. Key Data (as of August 8, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $116,954 (YTD +24.59%), daily spot trading volume $38.732 billion
Ethereum: $3,944.90 (YTD +16.98%), daily spot trading volume $37.192 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60.0%, ETH 12.2%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: IP, XRP, ETH, BTC, OMNI
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 51.08%/48.92%
Sector performance: Layer2 sector up 9.39%; PayFi sector up 9.97%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 115,938 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $408 million, including $53.41 million in BTC liquidations, $191 million in ETH liquidations, and $26.59 million in XRP liquidations.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($117,163.94), lower line ($114,843.86)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($3,721.59), lower line ($3,647.89)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of August 7)
Bitcoin ETF: +$281 million
Ethereum ETF: +$222 million, with net inflows for 3 consecutive days
4. Today's Outlook
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 8, accounting for 1.30% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $12.2 million.
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock approximately 24.64 million tokens at 9:00 PM on August 8, valued at approximately $2 million.
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock approximately 1.45 million tokens on August 8, valued at approximately $41 million.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 9, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $6.5 million.
Render (RENDER) will unlock approximately 492,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on August 10, accounting for 0.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.7 million.
Top 100 largest market cap gainers today: Pendle up 27.4%, Mantle up 21.1%, Aerodrome Finance up 17%, Lido DAO up 16.9%, Stellar up 15.2%.
5. Hot News
Fundamental Global plans to issue up to $5 billion in securities to purchase more Ethereum
Chainlink launches strategic LINK reserve, exceeding $1 million in LINK stored
INFINIT: IN airdrop claims will open today at 18:00, lasting for one month
Orca DAO proposes to stake 55,000 SOL and a two-year ORCA buyback plan
Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume in July reached $238 billion, the highest since December 2021
Bitcoin and Ethereum's August options market shows bearish tendencies
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
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