Key Points:
The on-chain growth of Solana supports the current rise, but the decline in decentralized exchange market share indicates cautious sentiment among traders.
The perpetual contract funding rate for SOL is close to neutral, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
Solana's native token, SOL, briefly touched $205 on Tuesday, having risen 18% in less than two days. This sharp increase has sparked speculation about whether SOL can extend its gains to $250 in the short term. Traders are weighing the network fundamentals and derivatives activity to determine if there is enough momentum to sustain this rally.
Despite failing to hold the psychological level of $200, SOL's performance still outshines the broader cryptocurrency market. The latest rise to $199 has pushed its market capitalization to $107 billion, still below BNB's $117 billion. To assess whether a "flip" is realistic, it is necessary to examine network fundamentals and derivatives indicators.
In the past 30 days, Solana's trading volume has increased by 48%, indicating accelerated on-chain activity that supports SOL's price outlook. In contrast, according to Nansen, the trading volume on the BNB chain has decreased by 41% during the same period. Solana's network fees have also risen by 43%, showing that increased usage has brought tangible economic benefits to token holders.
To understand whether traders have become optimistic after SOL approached a six-month high, perpetual contracts are key. To balance the imbalance in leverage demand, exchanges charge funding rates to buyers (longs) or sellers (shorts). Levels above 12% typically indicate bullish sentiment.
Currently at 12%, the annualized funding rate for SOL perpetual contracts is at the critical point between neutral and bullish sentiment. Traders seem skeptical, recalling that the last time SOL traded above $200 was on July 22, lasting less than 24 hours. Investors are also uninterested in the trading volume of Solana's decentralized exchanges (DEX), which has been declining.
According to DefiLlama, Solana's DEX activity has decreased for the third consecutive week to $20.6 billion. In the past 30 days, Solana's DEX trading volume was $113.7 billion, slightly below Ethereum's $116.2 billion, not including Ethereum's layer two ecosystem, which added another $91.7 billion. This data is not particularly encouraging for SOL holders.
The REX-Osprey Solana Staking Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) launched in July, managing assets totaling $161 million. In contrast, since August 5, Ethereum ETFs have recorded $2.33 billion in net inflows, despite Ethereum products not yet receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for staking functionality.
Although there is no apparent resistance preventing SOL from rising to $250, the current on-chain and derivatives data do not show clear catalysts or a surge in trader enthusiasm. However, the current leverage levels are not high, which helps support a more sustainable upward trend. This still depends on further participation from retail traders and institutional funds, which in turn relies on the progress of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of conventional Solana ETFs.
Related: Bitcoin Hits All-Time High, Traders Expect Liquidations to Push BTC Above $125,000
Original: “SOL Traders Expect $250, but Solana On-Chain Data Sends Mixed Signals”
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