The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September 2025 is not a "single switch for bull or bear markets," but rather a trigger point for the market under complex conditions.

Summary:

This research report, based on the three rounds of interest rate cuts in 2019, 2020, and 2024, combines the latest employment and inflation data, price signals of the dollar and gold, as well as high-frequency indicators such as ETF inflows and stablecoin supply, to propose the core judgment that "interest rate cuts = condition triggers rather than a single catalyst." The current market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point cut on September 25, with Bitcoin trading in the key range of $110,700–$114,000 and volatility at a low level. The slowdown in ETF net inflows and weakening corporate buying has made prices more dependent on pre-meeting paths and post-meeting marginal changes in funds: if the market consolidates or gently retreats before the meeting, the rate cut is more likely to act as a "stabilizer," triggering an unexpected rebound; if there is excessive upward movement before the meeting, the risk of "selling the fact" and short-term corrections increases. The medium-term outlook heavily depends on two "quantitative gates"—the continued absorption by ETFs and the return of corporate treasury/refinancing buying; the institutionalization of DAT and the expansion of stablecoins provide incremental liquidity, while inflation rebound, dollar stabilization, and regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties pose major constraints. Strategically, it is recommended to "tactically lighten positions in response to policy weeks and strategically follow liquidity in the fourth quarter," closely monitoring ETF inflows and stablecoin supply turning points, while selecting structural opportunities related to XRP, SOL, and DAT alongside BTC/ETH as anchors, and using options/basis hedging to control drawdowns.

I. Overview of the Macroeconomic Background

The current global macro environment is at a delicate and critical turning point. As U.S. economic data continues to weaken, the market has almost reached a consensus that the Federal Reserve will initiate this round of interest rate cuts on September 17. Data from the CME FedWatch tool and the decentralized prediction market Polymarket show that the probability of a 25 basis point cut at this meeting has surged to the range of 88%–99%, making it almost a "done deal." On the evening of September 10, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. August PPI year-on-year rate was 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.30%, and significantly lower than July's 3.1% year-on-year increase. After the unexpected low increase in August PPI alleviated market concerns about inflation pressures hindering monetary easing, traders bet on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve might initiate a series of rate cuts, continuing until the end of the year. According to futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate, the market expects the Fed to first cut rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, followed by further cuts of the same magnitude within the year. Meanwhile, some Wall Street institutions and international investment banks, such as Bank of America and Standard Chartered, even speculate that there may be room for a second rate cut within the year. Although a one-time aggressive move of 50 basis points is still viewed as a low-probability event, this possibility is no longer completely ignored in the context of the unexpectedly rapid cooling of the labor market. The direct trigger for this shift in policy expectations is the significant deterioration of the U.S. job market. The August non-farm payroll data showed only an increase of 22,000 jobs, far below the market's previous expectations of 160,000 to 180,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching a new high since 2021. More shockingly, after the U.S. Department of Labor made benchmark revisions to employment data from the past year, it lowered the number of jobs by over 900,000 in one go. This indicates that the robust employment narrative relied upon by the market in recent months has been severely overestimated, and the true state of the labor market is more fragile than it appears. Historically, similar magnitude data revisions typically occur only at the onset of an economic recession or after a significant shock, thus this adjustment has rapidly intensified market expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate its shift towards easing.

However, the slowdown in employment has not led to a simultaneous rapid decline in inflation, but rather has created a complex situation of "slowing growth + sticky inflation." The latest data shows that the U.S. CPI remains around 2.9%, while core PCE fluctuates in the range of 2.9%–3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. This inflation stickiness means that policymakers still face pressure when loosening monetary policy, needing to provide a buffer for cooling employment while not overly stimulating prices to rise again. This dilemma has significantly widened the divergence in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path: dovish individuals emphasize that the deterioration of the labor market has constituted systemic risk and that rate cuts should be faster and more substantial; while the hawkish camp believes that the current price level cannot be ignored, and an early shift may weaken long-term inflation anchoring. Every action taken by the Federal Reserve will be magnified and interpreted in the financial markets. Against this backdrop, price signals in the financial markets also reflect rapid changes in expectations. The dollar index continues to be under pressure and has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a year, indicating that investors are reassessing the attractiveness of U.S. monetary assets. In contrast, safe-haven assets and liquidity-sensitive assets have performed strongly. Gold has been climbing since summer, recently breaking through the $3,600 per ounce mark, continuously setting new historical highs, becoming the most direct beneficiary under expectations of liquidity easing. In the bond market, long-term rates have significantly retreated after experiencing high volatility at the beginning of the year, and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, reinforcing market concerns about future recession risks. Meanwhile, the stock market has shown relative differentiation, with technology and growth sectors maintaining resilience due to expectations of declining rates, while traditional cyclical sectors have performed poorly under fundamental pressures.

This macro pattern is not only a turning point for U.S. domestic monetary policy but is also interpreted as the beginning of a new round of global liquidity cycles. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and central banks in emerging markets are all paying attention to the Federal Reserve's movements, with some markets even releasing easing signals in advance, attempting to seize the opportunity for global capital redistribution. As the dollar weakens, some emerging market currencies have gained some breathing room, and commodity prices have remained firm under the support of liquidity expectations. This spillover effect means that the September FOMC meeting is not only an event for the U.S. financial market but also a key turning point in the pricing framework of global risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, this macro background is particularly important. Over the past decade, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gradually shifted from being marginal assets to part of mainstream investment portfolios, with their price fluctuations increasingly correlated with the macro liquidity environment. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often reacts in advance before monetary policy easing, exhibiting characteristics of "expectation-driven increases"; however, after the policy is actually implemented, the market sometimes experiences short-term corrections due to deteriorating economic realities, leading to "selling the fact." Now, in the complex landscape of rapidly weakening employment, persistent inflation stickiness, a continuously weak dollar, and gold hitting new highs, Bitcoin's pricing logic is at a critical juncture between policy expectations and economic realities. Whether traders, institutional investors, or retail participants, all are closely watching the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, which may become a decisive turning point for the cryptocurrency market's trajectory in the coming months and even the entire year.

II. Overview of the Current Cryptocurrency Market

Recently, Bitcoin's market price has stabilized around $113,000, with a weekly increase of about 2.4%, overall remaining in a relatively stable oscillation range. Notably, the current level of volatility has dropped to a low point over the past few months, indicating that the market has entered a phase of waiting and accumulating momentum. Several analysts point out that the key technical range in the short term is between $110,700 and $114,000: if the price can effectively break through $114,000 and stabilize, it is expected to open up a new round of upward space, and the market may shift to betting on "liquidity returning"; however, if it falls below $110,700, the $107,000 level becomes the primary support, and if this level is lost, it could trigger a deeper correction towards $100,000. This pattern of having resistance above and support below reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the upcoming Federal Reserve policy window, with the market temporarily choosing to control positions before key news lands, weakening short-term volatility. Compared to Bitcoin's oscillation, Ethereum has shown slightly weaker performance recently, accompanied by continued net outflows from ETFs, indicating a tightening of funds. Some market participants believe that Ethereum's current ecological narrative is relatively weak, with Layer 2 expansion and re-staking sectors entering a cooling period after the frenzy of the first half of the year, and institutional funds lack motivation for incremental allocation in the short term. However, ETH's on-chain activity remains resilient, with DeFi utilization rates and staking scales still at high levels, which somewhat buffers the negative impact of fund outflows. In contrast, assets like XRP and Solana have seen phase rebounds due to interest rate cut expectations, especially XRP, which rose about 4% in a single day after ETF-related products gained market attention, indicating that some investors are shifting their risk appetite to second-tier mainstream coins during Bitcoin's consolidation. Solana continues to rely on ecological innovation and institutional interest, particularly with its digital asset treasury (DAT) concept gaining Nasdaq approval, making it a pioneer case for on-chain capital marketization, providing independent catalysts for SOL. ETF fund flows are one of the core structural factors in the current market. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have shown a trend of net outflows in recent weeks, reflecting a short-term wait-and-see attitude of institutional funds, but some new products and potential approvals remain the focus of market attention. For example, the XRP ETF and the approval expectations for a new batch of Bitcoin ETFs are still seen as potential key catalysts to ignite a new round of fund inflows. Some research institutions predict that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by a cumulative 75–100 basis points within 2025, it could release over $6 billion in incremental funds into cryptocurrency ETF products, becoming a potential structural buyer. This logic is similar to the experience in 2024, when it was the combination of ETF inflows and corporate buying demand that drove Bitcoin to strengthen against the trend after the rate cuts were implemented. The difference is that the pace of ETF inflows in 2025 has clearly slowed, and the market is waiting for new funding trigger points.

In addition to the traditional Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETF logic, emerging narratives are also shaping the market structure. First is the rapid rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), which combine equity financing of listed companies with on-chain reserves. DAT has extended from the cases of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the Solana ecosystem. Recently, SOL Strategies was approved for listing on Nasdaq, indicating that the combination of traditional capital markets and cryptocurrency reserve mechanisms is accelerating. DAT often forms a positive feedback loop through asset appreciation and capital premiums in bull markets, while in bear markets, it amplifies risks due to redemptions and sell-offs, making its pro-cyclical characteristics a highly watched innovative product in the market. Some analysts refer to DAT as "the next ETF," predicting that it may become a systematic sector in the capital market in the coming years. Meanwhile, meme coins and high-risk altcoin contract markets remain hot, serving as a barometer of retail sentiment. In the context of a lack of trending movements in mainstream coins, a large amount of capital has flowed into short-term volatile meme projects, such as Dogecoin, Bonk, and PEPE, which remain highly active on social media and contract markets. The cyclical rise of the meme sector usually indicates a rebound in market risk appetite, but it is often accompanied by high liquidation risks and short-term volatility. This existence of high-risk appetite sharply contrasts with the stable allocation of mainstream institutional investors, showing that the internal structure of the cryptocurrency market remains highly differentiated.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently at a complex equilibrium point: Bitcoin is oscillating in a key range, waiting for policy signals to determine its direction; Ethereum is under short-term funding pressure, but its long-term ecosystem remains resilient; second-tier mainstream coins and emerging narratives provide localized highlights but struggle to independently drive the overall market; ETF flows and the expansion of stablecoins are the underlying logic supporting market resilience. Coupled with the emerging model of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) and the high-risk games in the meme market, this forms a multi-layered landscape in the current market. At this critical moment of macro policy turning, market sentiment is caught between caution and exploration, and this waiting under low volatility may nurture the next phase of significant market movements.

III. Review of U.S. Rate Cuts History and Current Analysis

Looking back at the interactions between "rate cuts and the cryptocurrency market" over the past three rounds, it is clear that the same macro signal can present entirely different price paths under varying fundamentals and funding structures. The year 2019 is a typical case of "expectations leading, followed by a correction": before the fundamentals deteriorated enough to trigger easing, Bitcoin preemptively demonstrated a recovery in risk appetite and a repricing of valuations. At that time, the Federal Reserve made three small rate cuts in July, September, and October, and the marginal easing of the monetary environment and delayed bets on a "soft landing" led BTC to rebound throughout the first half of the year, peaking above $13,000 in June; however, after the policy was actually implemented, the realities of economic downturn and a retreat in global risk appetite began to dominate asset pricing, causing Bitcoin to retreat from its yearly highs and fall to around $7,000 by year-end, as the market ultimately corrected its previous optimistic expectations regarding liquidity and growth through a "realization and repricing" process. Thus, it can be seen that in 2019, it was not the rate cuts themselves that suppressed prices, but rather the narrative of "rate cuts = passive confirmation of growth downturn" that prevailed, leading to the sequence of rising first and then falling.

The year 2020 was a completely different "anomalous sample." The liquidity shock triggered by the pandemic led the Federal Reserve to make two emergency rate cuts in March (March 3 -50bp, March 15 -100bp to zero interest rates), along with a combination of unlimited QE and coordinated central bank swap lines to stabilize systemic risks. Around the most severe shock on "Black Thursday" (March 12), Bitcoin and risk assets were passively deleveraging and experienced significant declines in a single day, only to quickly rebound on the "policy floor" supported by fiscal and monetary dual stimulus. Since the trigger for this round was an exogenous public health event and a liquidity crisis, rather than a typical mild slowdown at the tail end of a business cycle, it lacks high-frequency comparability to 2025: the "initial crash followed by a rebound" in 2020 more reflected a technical contraction of dollar scarcity and margin chains, rather than a linear response to the rate cuts themselves.

Entering 2024, the historical path was rewritten again. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve initiated this round of easing in September with a direct choice of a 50bp "opening move," and the dot plot still pointed to further easing within the year; on the political level, the U.S. election brought "cryptocurrency/digital asset regulation and national strategy" to the center of the agenda; on the market level, the passive and active funding demand accumulated after the regulatory landing of spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows on days following the election results. The combination of these three factors formed a strong hedge against the "selling the fact" narrative after the rate cuts: prices not only did not follow the "realization correction" pattern of 2019 but instead strengthened under the triple support of policy anchoring, a policy-friendly narrative, and instrumental buying (ETFs), gradually completing a three-stage evolution from "narrative-driven to funding support to price confirmation." In other words, the experience of 2024 indicates that when structural incremental funds (ETFs) and strong narratives (policy-friendly/political cycles) coexist, the signaling effect of rate cuts will be significantly amplified and sustained, weakening the traditional concerns of "rate cuts = growth downturn."

Based on the above three historical segments, September 2025 appears more like a "trigger point under conditional constraints" rather than a direct catalyst in a single direction. First, in terms of rhythm, Bitcoin has entered a long period of consolidation after retreating from its mid-year highs, with implied volatility decreasing, and the futures position structure neutralizing, while net inflows on the ETF side have significantly slowed, with some months even approaching record net outflow levels—this indicates that the background of "policy + narrative + passive funding triple resonance" seen in 2024 has not yet reappeared. Second, in terms of structure, the funding flows of Ethereum ETFs and some mainstream chains have shown divergence, indicating that allocation strategies are reassessing the trade-off between "Beta vs. structural opportunities." Third, from a macro anchor perspective, the market has a strong consensus on a 25bp rate cut in September, with marginal variables now focusing on "forward guidance and subsequent rhythm after the cut," which is more likely to change the paths of duration, real interest rates, and liquidity expectations than the question of "whether to cut rates" itself. These three points collectively determine that the September meeting is more likely to be a "calibration point for positions and sentiment," with its price impact depending on the path taken.

Accordingly, we can divide the potential evolution of September 2025 into two main lines. If prices rise spontaneously before the meeting, and momentum indicators strengthen and approach the upper key range, the probability of a historical "expectation trading followed by realization" pattern reoccurring increases: after the rate cut, short-term bulls taking profits and momentum reversals from CTA/quantitative positions may overlap, triggering a rapid pullback of 3%–8%, followed by a second directional determination driven by more medium-term liquidity expectations and marginal funds. The core of this branch lies in "price leading, funds following," allowing "easing" to transform from a positive signal to a profit-taking signal at the moment of implementation. Conversely, if prices maintain a sideways trend or gently retreat before the meeting, and leveraged and speculative net long positions are passively unwound, the market enters a state of "low positions, low volatility, low expectations," then a 25bp rate cut and dovish forward guidance may become a "stabilizer" or even a "source of surprise," triggering an unexpected wave of rebound: the chain of narrowing ETF net outflows—repairing stablecoin net issuance—recovering derivatives basis—restoring spot premiums will gradually complete, with prices building a more solid mid-term platform in a "bottoming and lifting" manner.

Therefore, under the three-step method of "historical review—current depiction—scenario extrapolation," we draw three conclusions for the execution level: first, grasp "path dependence" rather than "the event itself." Whether prices rise significantly or remain flat before the meeting determines how the same news translates into two entirely different price reactions; second, tracking the marginal turning points of "quantitative gates" is more important than judging "dove/hawk": ETF inflows and corporate buying—refinancing itself is an observable funding variable, and their explanatory power for trends often surpasses macro perspectives; third, respect "term layering," dividing trading into "tactical trading during policy week volatility" and "strategic layout of liquidity trends in Q4" to run in parallel: the former relies on positions and risk control, while the latter depends on forward-looking judgments of funding and policy rhythms. History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme; the "initial rise followed by a fall" in 2019, the "initial crash followed by a V-shaped recovery" in 2020, and the "continuation of strength after rate cuts" in 2024 collectively form the context of the "conditional trigger" for September 2025—the key lies not in "the hammer falling," but in what positions and funding gates are pressing down on both ends of the chopping board when the hammer falls.

In the current market, where there is a highly consistent expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, the potential paths for the cryptocurrency market can be divided into three scenarios: "positive, negative, and uncertain." First, from the positive path perspective, the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, which means that the implementation of the policy itself may not become a decisive catalyst; however, if accompanied by a series of marginal variables turning positive, such as a resumption of net inflows into ETFs, some institutions choosing to increase positions after price corrections, or new buying demand emerging at the corporate level, then mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to see a second upward movement. Research firm AInvest points out that a declining interest rate curve means a decrease in the risk-free return, supporting the valuation of risk assets, especially Bitcoin, which is dominated by the "long-term holding" logic. Under this assumption, Bitcoin is expected to re-accumulate funds to drive a continuation of a similar "policy floor + structural funding resonance" pattern seen in 2024. CryptoSlate's calculations suggest that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by a cumulative 75–100 basis points in 2025, it could release over $6 billion in incremental ETF demand flowing into the Bitcoin market. Some well-known analysts also hold an optimistic view; for example, Tom Lee from Fundstrat stated that if rate cuts and strong ETF inflows overlap, Bitcoin's target range could challenge $200,000 by year-end, while Ethereum could benefit from on-chain narratives and liquidity resonance, reaching $7,000. Although such predictions may seem aggressive, they highlight the potential amplifying effect of policy and funding resonance on prices, especially in the context of previously low market volatility and light positions; once new funds flow in, their price elasticity will be significantly amplified.

In summary, the impact of the September 2025 rate cut on the cryptocurrency market is not one-directional but depends on the interaction of price paths, fund flows, and macro variables. If the market maintains stability before the meeting and ETF net inflows recover, an unexpected rebound is likely, potentially pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum to new interim highs; if there is a significant rise before the meeting, the risk of "selling the fact" becomes significant, and short-term volatility may concentrate on releasing. In the medium to long term, the true determinants of market heights will still be the continued absorption capacity of ETFs, the recovery of corporate buying demand, and whether the macro environment allows for sustained liquidity easing. Under these conditional constraints, investors need to recognize the upside potential while being wary of downside risks, and strategically maintain a balance between "tactical games during policy week" and "strategic layouts of liquidity trends in Q4."

IV. Opportunities and Challenges

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market will depend on three major factors: the macro liquidity environment, structural funding strength, and innovative narratives within the industry. After the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, market attention will gradually shift to the continuity of future policy paths and whether funds will re-enter risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum serving as pricing anchors playing a decisive role. Around this core, the market faces both opportunities and challenges. From the perspective of opportunities, the return of macro liquidity and asset allocation demand is first. As the U.S. economy enters a phase of slowing growth, the bond yield curve gradually declines, and investors' expectations for returns on risk-free assets decrease, the risk premiums of major asset classes are re-elevated, providing space for Bitcoin as a "store of value" and "liquidity-sensitive asset" to expand its valuation. If the Federal Reserve further cuts rates by the end of the year or even in early 2026, the reallocation demand for global funds may guide more institutional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Some investment banks and research institutions predict that under a 75–100 basis point easing path, the annualized incremental inflow into Bitcoin ETFs could reach $60–80 billion, and this portion of funds will form a solid long-term buying base. For Ethereum, its role as a foundational infrastructure for crypto finance is clearer; if the regulatory environment continues to open up for spot ETH ETFs, funds are expected to push its price to break through a new valuation range.

Secondly, the continuation of corporate buying demand and balance sheet strategies is crucial. Since 2020, cases like MicroStrategy and Tesla have validated the feasibility of "corporate treasury allocation of cryptocurrency," and after 2024, this model has been further institutionalized. With the diversification of corporate financing tools, such as convertible bonds and ATM financing mechanisms, the logic of companies directly allocating BTC after raising funds in the capital markets has been proven viable. If macro interest rates decline in 2025, reducing corporate financing costs, it may instead incentivize a new round of "financing—buying coins—re-pricing of stock prices" flywheel cycles. This structural buying has become a new pillar of the cryptocurrency market in recent years, and its continuation will determine the stability of BTC's price floor.

The third opportunity lies in the intersection of internal industry innovation and capital markets. The Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model is gradually taking shape between 2024 and 2025, essentially combining cryptocurrency reserves with traditional capital market financing tools, forming a "third type of institutional buying" beyond ETFs and corporate buying. The approval of Solana's SOL Strategies for listing on Nasdaq marks a breakthrough in the integration of traditional capital markets with on-chain assets. Once DAT products scale up, they will introduce external funds for specific chains and ecosystems, providing new Alpha opportunities beyond the existing Beta. Also noteworthy is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem; Tether, USDC, and even regional stablecoin projects are becoming "shadow dollars" by holding government bonds and cash management tools, and their large-scale expansion provides additional liquidity buffers for the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, challenges cannot be overlooked. The primary challenge comes from the cyclical risk of "selling the fact." Even if the September rate cut triggers a short-term rebound, the reality the market must face is that easing often signifies weak growth and declining risk appetite. If the U.S. job market continues to deteriorate and corporate earnings outlooks are revised downwards, the sustainability of ETF and institutional buying may be hindered, and cryptocurrency assets could still repeat the "high-level retreat" seen in 2019 after a short-term rise. This requires investors to maintain flexibility in positions and liquidity in the fourth quarter, even if they are bullish, to avoid unilateral bets. The second challenge is the uncertainty of inflation and the dollar's trajectory. If CPI rebounds in the coming months and core PCE remains around 3% for an extended period, the Federal Reserve may have to slow the pace of rate cuts. If the dollar stabilizes or even rebounds during this period, the logic of Bitcoin as a "hedge against dollar depreciation" will be weakened. Additionally, global macro risks (such as geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations) could also lead to unexpected inflation rebounds, further limiting the space for liquidity easing. This misalignment between macro and market conditions could become a potential source of volatility in the fourth quarter. The third challenge is the uncertainty of regulatory and policy risks. The progress of the U.S. election and candidates' attitudes toward the cryptocurrency industry will directly impact regulatory stances. If there are delays in regulatory approvals, new ETF products are shelved, or the cryptocurrency industry faces new policy constraints, market sentiment will quickly turn cautious. Furthermore, regulatory dynamics in European and Asian markets are equally important; the policy direction of Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU regarding cryptocurrency asset custody, trading, and compliance could influence regional capital flows. If the regulatory environment tightens, the willingness of institutional funds to flow in will be restricted, and market resilience will decline.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market after September 2025 stands at a complex crossroads. On one hand, liquidity easing, corporate buying, and new capital market products provide long-term structural opportunities for the market; on the other hand, economic realities, inflation, and regulatory uncertainties pose phase-specific challenges. For investors, the best strategy for the next phase is not to bet on a single path but to maintain a dynamic balance between opportunities and challenges: leveraging macro easing and structural funding opportunities for medium to long-term positioning while using risk hedging and position management to guard against short-term volatility. In other words, the market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is not simply a bull or bear market, but a complex pattern of "coexisting opportunities and risks, intertwined volatility and trends," where capturing true excess returns in this phase requires maintaining flexibility and discipline.

V. Conclusion

Looking back at the three rate cut cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin has exhibited completely different price trajectories under varying macro environments and funding structures. This report presents three core conclusions. First, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have been almost fully priced in by the market; the implementation of a 25bp cut itself will not change the trend. What truly determines direction is the price path before the meeting and the marginal flow of funds after the rate cut. If Bitcoin maintains a sideways trend or gently retreats before the meeting, releasing market position pressure, then the rate cut may act as a stabilizer, potentially triggering an unexpected rebound; if prices have already risen significantly before the meeting, the probability of "selling the fact" increases significantly, and prices may face a rapid pullback in the short term. Second, ETF and corporate buying demand are quantitative gates for whether the mid-term market can continue. If ETF net inflows resume positive growth and the corporate refinancing and buying flywheel restarts, then even if there is volatility on the day of the meeting, the fourth quarter may still form a path of "bottoming—lifting—breaking through." Third, macro and policy uncertainties still pose potential risks.

In summary, the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September 2025 is not a "single switch for a bull or bear market," but a trigger point for the market under complex conditions. For investors, the key is to dynamically adjust their cognitive framework: not to view rate cuts as an automatic bullish signal, nor to overly fear the risks of "selling the fact," but to maintain a balance between opportunities and challenges, leveraging the resonance of macro policies and structural funds for medium to long-term positioning while managing short-term risks through flexible positions and hedging tools. Only in this way can one safeguard the bottom line while seizing potential excess returns during the volatility cycle of the fourth quarter of 2025.

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