Key Points:
Bitcoin (BTC) may retest the range of $111,000 to $113,000, with a structure similar to the breakout in the second quarter.
The URPD indicator shows that 5.5% of BTC supply is concentrated in the $110,000 to $113,000 range.
New medium-sized holders have absorbed 715,000 BTC distributed by whales.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose nearly 6% in September, reversing its typical bearish seasonality. After a strong weekly performance, the asset peaked near the major supply range of $115,600 to $117,300. If the closing price can clearly break above $117,300, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to challenge new highs.
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, the market anticipates a rate cut on Wednesday, leading to a slight pullback in Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, dropping below $114,500. Analysts suggest that the current round of pullback may present a better buying opportunity.
From a technical perspective, the key retracement range is $111,000 to $113,000, with a structure similar to the second quarter. In June, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from a low below $100,000 to $109,000 and consolidated below the $110,000 resistance level.
After the initial resistance, the market absorbed liquidity around $105,000 and then broke through in July, reaching new highs above $120,000.
The current trend also shows a similar pattern. For the upward trend to continue, Bitcoin (BTC) needs to hold the $111,000 to $113,000 range. A drop below this range would weaken the bullish structure; if it remains stable, it could confirm a new round of structural breakout.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also supports this view, having recently regained the 50 level and testing it as support. Historically, this pattern often triggers new buying momentum, as seen in June.
Crypto analyst ShayanBTC points out that miner behavior reinforces the positive outlook:
The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) indicator is one of the main reasons the $113,000 range has become a technical support. This indicator depicts the distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) supply by purchase price. Recent data shows that 5.5% of BTC supply has shifted in the $110,000 to $113,000 range, highlighting it as one of the most active accumulation areas in recent weeks.
In other words, a large number of holders are positioning themselves here, showing their confidence in the long-term value of this range.
The behavior of different wallet groups further reinforces this accumulation trend. Since July 2024, shark wallets (holding 100–1,000 BTC) have increased their holdings by nearly 1 million BTC, with a cumulative balance reaching 5.939 million BTC. The continuous growth of the balance indicates that new medium-sized participants are actively building positions.
Bitcoin (BTC) researcher Axel Adler Jr. adds that, at the same time, the distribution of large holders has also changed significantly. Whale wallets (holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have reduced their holdings by 324,000 BTC since March 2024, while mega whale wallets (holding 10,000 BTC and above) have reduced their holdings by 391,000 BTC.
Overall, approximately 715,000 BTC have flowed into the market since last year's peak.
Crucially, this supply has been absorbed, primarily by smaller new participants, emphasizing why the $113,000 level may mark the last meaningful "discount" before a renewed rise.
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Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $113,000 could be the last big discount before new highs—here’s why”
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