Source: "Trading Star Tuesday" Content Organized by: Peter_Techub News

Introduction: The Federal Reserve's Rate Decision is Highly Anticipated

The "Trading Star Tuesday" Space live broadcast created by Techub News focuses on the cryptocurrency trading and blockchain industry, gathering executives from global exchanges, compliance experts, and investors every Tuesday to discuss trading strategies and industry trends. This episode, hosted by Techub News COO Sam, will focus on the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision meeting at 2 AM on September 18 (Thursday, Beijing time), exploring its far-reaching impact on the US stock market, A-shares, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets. Techub News will provide bilingual live broadcasts on YouTube and Twitter. The guest lineup includes Builder Meg from Shanghai Mankun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, m&WDAO partner Qiu Jianghong, and exchange analyst William Yuan, who will provide authoritative interpretations from trading, compliance, and practical perspectives, revealing how the Federal Reserve's decisions ignite global financial discussions.

Macroeconomic Background and Market Signals: Rate Cut Expectations Amid Trump and Powell's Game

Host Sam reviews the rate cut dispute between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in 2025: in April, Trump called for a rate cut but was unsuccessful; in May, the meeting broke down; in June, he threatened to replace Powell, highlighting Trump's belief that the US economy needs significant rate cuts. Sam asks: What signals do inflation and employment data such as CPI and PPI send? What impact do they have on the Federal Reserve's rate cut space?

• Meg: Market Data Outperforms Official Data, Expecting a Controlled Soft Landing Meg cites Polymarket data, indicating a 91% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, 7% for 50 basis points, and only 2% for no cut, believing that market behavior data is superior to traditional media, reflecting a "positive soft landing" for the economy. She points out that inflation is expected to moderately rise in early 2025, with employment slowing but manageable, and that Trump's tough tariffs (such as 140% on China) are difficult to implement, with no market deterioration and an overall optimistic outlook.

• William Yuan: Technical Stabilization, Clear Benefits from Rate Cuts William analyzes technical signals of "head and shoulders" and "rounded bottom," indicating market stabilization; he recalls how the 2020 rate cuts drove a tenfold growth in the crypto market, with the current cycle rising from 69,000 to over 100,000, and a 90%+ probability that rate cuts will boost prices, but warns of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" washouts (recent 5-8% pullback), with a black swan probability of only 3-5%.

Nature of Interest Rates and Capital Flow: How Dollar APY Reshapes the Market

Sam draws an analogy with blockchain, viewing the Federal Reserve's interest rate as the APY of the dollar capital pool, where rate hikes lead to capital flowing back to the US (such as USDT flowing to Ethereum and exchanges, with an APY of 11%), resulting in liquidity depletion in DeFi and small coins; rate cuts, on the other hand, push up global high-yield markets. He inquires about the extent of rate cuts, volatility if rates are unchanged, and the sense of crisis with significant cuts.

• Meg: Altcoin Season Emerges, 25 Basis Point Cut is More Stable Meg believes the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is high, and the crypto market has entered an "altcoin season," but rotation is limited, reflecting the impact of macro decisions. The current pace is manageable, and the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is low; although there are historical precedents, the tendency is for moderate adjustments, emphasizing the reliability of market data.

• William: Enhanced Liquidity, Over 50 Basis Points May Lead to Internal Competition William predicts that a 25 basis point cut will be beneficial for increasing positions, while cuts over 50 basis points should be approached with caution. From a metaphysical perspective, the "Nine Purple Fire Movement" in 2025 is favorable for technology and finance, but cuts exceeding 50 basis points may lead to uncontrollable inflation. Those born under fire/wood zodiac signs should increase positions, while water signs should be defensive, emphasizing risk preference and contingency plans.

Asset Prices and Investment Strategies: Sentiment Trends and Long-Term Potential

Sam asks whether a significant rate cut (50+ or 70+ basis points) acknowledging a macro crisis would stimulate a surge in safe-haven assets but exacerbate concerns. If rates are unchanged, how will sentiment fluctuate? Will Bitcoin (over 110,000), Ethereum, and Solana reach new highs?

• William: Bullish on Major Coins, Focus on Hot Altcoins William predicts Bitcoin will reach 138,000, Ethereum 5,300-5,800, with rate cuts enhancing liquidity for public chains, benefiting "bank stock"-like assets. Altcoins carry high risks and should focus on hot trends (such as meme coins, Solana), recommending a 20% base position, increasing positions on trend reversals, and exiting to preserve capital during short-term volatility, avoiding high leverage that could lead to liquidation.

• Meg: Regular Investment in Major Coins, Long-Term Outlook of One Million Dollars Meg believes that pre-rate cut sentiment will slightly boost Bitcoin and Ethereum, with low chances of significant short-term volatility. She is optimistic about both in the long term, comparing Bitcoin's market value to gold, predicting it could reach one million dollars, and suggesting ordinary investors regularly invest in major coins, gold, and ETFs, betting on the "national fortunes" of China and the US, avoiding timing risks, and emphasizing capital management.

Conclusion: Rational Strategies to Embrace Market Opportunities

This episode of "Trading Star Tuesday" delves into the Federal Reserve's rate decision, with guests unanimously optimistic about a 25 basis point cut, short-term sentiment trends boosting major coins, and significant long-term potential. Investors should choose between regular investment or focusing on hot trends based on their risk preferences, responding rationally to volatility. Techub News will continue to track global financial and crypto market dynamics, and we welcome you to follow the next live broadcast!

(All content shared in this program is not investment advice; please invest cautiously.)

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