We also know that we have taken the wrong path, but now we have no room for choice. In the world of adults, everyone has their own unspeakable difficulties, and everyone is constrained by circumstances. We are all being pushed forward by life. In life, the moment we take on responsibilities, it is no longer a matter of choice!

Since we updated the article last week, the market trends over the past couple of days have largely aligned with our expectations for the subsequent movements. Starting from the interest rate decision, there was no unexpected cut of 25 basis points, which was in line with market expectations. Therefore, the market experienced a slight increase followed by a continuous decline. This is a typical "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market trend, where buying the expectation refers to the rise before the rate cut, and selling the fact refers to the decline after the rate cut. In terms of operations, there isn't much to say. We originally expected a rise to around 118,500 to complete a bullish liquidity clearance above, followed by a correction. However, it failed to reach the 118,500 level, which limited our profit margins for subsequent short positions. Nevertheless, the market thought process was correct, allowing us to still achieve some profit.

Returning to today's market, we first look at the distribution of liquidity. With today's market dipping again, some bullish liquidity below has been cleared, causing bullish liquidity to mainly concentrate around 113,000. This position still has considerable bullish liquidity clearance intensity. Similarly, during the market's decline, short-term chasing liquidity has begun to appear, with the current short-term high-leverage bearish liquidity clearance intensity mainly around 115,700, and then up to the 117,000 level. If there is a rebound during the day, we will see if this part of the high-leverage chasing liquidity gets cleared. The spot premium rate has not changed much, slightly decreasing. In the current decline, the decrease in the premium rate has not shown significant changes, indicating that there is no major selling situation yet, and it is likely that this level of decline has not broken psychological expectations.

On the technical front, the weekly line confirmed its close, forming a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow. In the previous two periods, there were rebound bullish candles, followed by a high position with an upper shadow bearish candle, confirming that this may be a high point for a weekly level rebound. Currently, on the weekly level, it is still in a bearish trend. If the subsequent close continues to show bearish candles, it is likely to mark the beginning of the realization of the weekly top divergence correction expectation. From the technical indicators, the RSI has also turned down from a relatively high position. If the correction begins to materialize, there is still enough space below, maintaining the previous view that a lower low than the previous correction cycle will appear.

On the daily level, there is a typical bearish structure after a rebound, encountering resistance and falling back. Currently, the daily line is below the MA7 line, showing clear weakness in the short term, with short-term support at 112,000. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD bullish cycle is converging from a high position and is currently close to a death cross, about to enter a bearish cycle, with strong bearish sentiment in the market. On the four-hour chart, we see familiar low points being continuously refreshed, and there is currently no sign of a stop in the decline. However, from the MACD perspective, the market has been in a bearish cycle for a long time, and it is estimated that a short-term stop and rebound to repair the indicators will come soon. Combining this with the performance of the larger cycle, the subsequent market on the four-hour chart will continue to decline after waiting for the indicators to repair.

In terms of operations, after the decline, consider making a short-term bullish position around 113,000 for a rebound layout, and then again set up a short position looking towards lower targets. If a rebound occurs first, then we can set up a short position above 115,700.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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