Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
The US strikes against Iran enter their 19th day, Trump claims to have "completely destroyed Iranian military power" and that NATO allies are not needed, while Iran announces the initiation of the "Real Commitment-4" operation's 61st offensive, as retaliation for the assassination of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani. Analysts believe that the death of Larijani will have a far greater impact on the operation of the Iranian regime than Khamenei.
On Tuesday, US stocks continued to rebound, with the three major indices showing slight increases. However, the sell-off triggered by the US-Iran war has not yet bottomed out. BofA strategist Michael Hartnett warned that the Middle East conflict and concerns over private credit have shattered the "bubble-like bull market," but the current sentiment indicator of 5.6 and the 8.5 bullish-bearish sell signal indicate that the market has not yet reached historically extreme pessimism.
Ahead of Thursday morning's FOMC meeting, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the market expects a nearly 99% probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with a probability of 97% for keeping rates unchanged next month. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warned that the Federal Reserve's "dual mandate" has turned into "mutual conflict," with risks of entrenched inflation increasing day by day; J.P. Morgan's David Kelly believes Powell will emphasize the high uncertainty brought about by the Middle East conflict, but core economic forecasts will not see significant changes. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson candidly stated that the Federal Reserve has deviated from its 2% inflation target for too long, and out-of-control prices are the biggest threat.
Additionally, US Treasury debt soared to a record $38.86 trillion, with interest expenses consuming 17% of government revenue. Larry McDonald, founder of the "Risk-Off Trap Report," said that high energy costs and weak employment are forcing the Federal Reserve into a "nightmarish dilemma," and gold's struggle around the $5,000 mark reflects the exhaustion of the paper credit system. Daniel Pavilonis from RJO Futures further warned that if 10-year US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold and silver will face a deep correction, and the price of gold could even fall to the abyss of $4,200.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin is currently experiencing wild fluctuations in the range of $74,000 to $76,000, with option market pricing revealing soaring expectations of short-term volatility. Although the price once touched six-week highs of $76,000, heavy selling pressure above led to a retreat. This rebound overly relies on leveraged drives in the derivatives market, with some old players taking the opportunity to offload. On-chain data shows that the influx of funds into spot ETFs has turned positive, accumulating over 26,636 BTC in the past month, with buyers' average cost line approaching $79,900.
The market is cautious ahead of Thursday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting; although maintaining interest rates is widely expected, BTC has dropped following 7 of the 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, leading to pessimistic market sentiment. Notably, while the FOMC meeting may have short-term bearish implications, BTC tends to stabilize 48-72 hours after. Analysts generally believe that if Bitcoin buying cannot sustain, it could retest the $68,000 support level or even lower, with the $70,000 to $71,000 area being seen as the last line of defense for bulls. As long as the price can stabilize above the range high, this rebound is expected to continue, with most analysts believing it can rise to at least $80,000.
Bearish Views
The core logic of this camp lies in: expectations of macro liquidity tightening, lack of spot buying, and structural fragility in the contract market are shaping the recent rebound into a dangerous "bull trap."
Mayne: The recent rebound will eventually lead to lower lows, and once the price falls back into the trading range, long positions should be decisively reduced.
LP: There is ongoing selling pressure in the $74K-$75K region; if buying does not follow, the price will drop to $72K, even filling the CME gap at $71.3K.
Ardi: $70K-$71K is the last line of defense for bulls; falling below this level means losing both the mid-term trendline and horizontal support, completely exhausting the upward trend.
Killa: Since May 2025, BTC has dropped after every FOMC meeting (6 out of 6), and currently has only experienced a 112-day bear market; blindly bottom fishing goes against cyclical patterns.
Ted: The liquidity above has been cleared, and the next move will target long positions below $70,000, but there may be a false breakout above $76,000 to lure buyers.
Technical Crypto Analyst: The price encounters resistance in the 74K-79K resistance zone of the rising channel, potentially triggering a deep correction towards the 68K support level.
Roman: There are no signs of a bear market bottom in the larger cycles, lacking bottom divergence and bottom volume.
Jelle: The true bear market bottom is far below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, and the market still needs to go through a long boring consolidation period.
CryptoQuant analyst: The market is shifting from spot-driven to overheated derivatives-driven, with old players distributing chips, and contract positions divergence suggests this might be a bull trap.
Bullish Views
The core logic of this camp lies in: technical breakout above key resistance, continuous inflow of ETF funds, and the supply reduction effect after halving will provide ample fuel for Bitcoin to reach historical highs.
Adam: As long as Powell gives a dovish signal of "inflation is manageable," improving liquidity expectations will directly boost BTC to challenge the $80,000 mark.
Mayne: As long as the price can stabilize above the range high, this rebound is expected to continue, with an upper target aiming for $80K even $86K-$90K.
Altcoin Sherpa: If it can break and hold above the range high, the next wave of increases will target $85K-$95K; around $85K is also where the 200-day EMA is located.
that1618guy: Models show that the probability of reaching $80K in the next 14 days (35.8%) is much higher than the probability of dropping to $67.5K (21.7%), exhibiting positive skew in the market.
Crypto Tony: Bears have failed to sustain momentum in the downturn, and bulls still dominate the situation; after breaking the previous high, $80,000 is within reach.
IncomeSharks: If the pullback is shallow, reaching $80K by the end of the month is entirely possible; the RJALPHA model issued a rare quadruple buy signal at $66K, targeting $92K.
Man of Bitcoin: Weekly stochastic RSI breaking above 20 releases bullish signals; if it breaks the downtrend line, it will test the 50 moving average; prices consolidating below the resistance level suggest an ongoing bullish momentum, maintaining $70,260 is key.
Ali Charts: Bitcoin is breaking upwards; if the daily close can hold at $73,344, it will open up the volatility space towards $79,234 and $85,555.
Market Dynamics
The regulatory fog in the crypto market is being strongly dispelled, the latest guidelines from the SEC and CFTC classify crypto assets into five categories. This not only liberates Bitcoin and Ethereum but also designates many altcoins like SOL, XRP, and DOGE as "digital commodities," while clearly defining compliance boundaries for NFTs, airdrops, and cross-chain assets.
Solana stands at a bursting crossroads; on the weekly chart, SOL has shown the "long lower shadow" bottom signal again, which accurately predicted 1604% and 142% surges previously. Analysts WebTrend and Bluntz noted that SOL has completed its accumulation phase and broken out of the ascending triangle; as long as it firmly holds down the $93.50 support, the next target will directly aim for $120 or even $145.
Key Data (As of March 18, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: +$199 million, 7 days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: +$138 million, 6 days of net inflow
XRP ETF: +$4.6369 million
SOL ETF: +$17.8107 million
Fear and Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, POLYX, ETH, BTT
Sector performance: The crypto market generally retraced, only the SocialFi sector remained relatively strong
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 61,709 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $131 million, including $52.65 million in BTC, $24.12 million in ETH, and $3.07 million in SOL.
Today's Outlook
Binance HODLer Airdrop Launching Project Fabric Protocol (ROBO) No. 62
Binance: Katana (KAT) token will start circulating at 19:00 on March 18
Lombard (BARD) will unlock around 30 million tokens on March 18, worth about $32.3 million
US Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (lower range): previous value 3.5%, forecast value 3.5% (March 19, 2:00)
US Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (upper range): previous value 3.75%, forecast value 3.75% (March 19, 2:00)
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference (March 19, 2:30)
Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decision (March 19)
Bank of England policy interest rate (March 19)
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value: Siren up 12%, MemeCore up 7.9%, Kaspa up 5.7%, LayerZero up 5.2%, Jupiter up 3.3%.
Hot News
Suspected Cumberland wallet withdrew 543.5 BTC from CEX 6 hours ago, approximately $40.58 million
Five new addresses withdrew 29,598 ETH from Coinbase 8 hours ago, worth $68.94 million
Sharplink: Last week staked earnings of 493 ETH, with total staked earnings reaching 15,464 ETH
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