Election Day officially begins (November 5) marking the climax of the intense campaign for the U.S. presidential election. The results from the first polling station have come in, showing a tie at the start, reflecting the fierce competition. Musk continues to tweet in support of Trump today.
First Polling Station Results: A Tie at the Start
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is considered a "super election year," and the results will have lasting impacts on the U.S. economy and global capital markets. The stark contrast in campaign strategies between the two main candidates, Trump and Harris, as well as their respective policy proposals, could significantly affect the U.S. and global economies. Trump emphasizes populist appeals, while Harris plans to continue most of Biden's economic and foreign policies.
In terms of this election, the betting market trends indicate that Kamala Harris's chances of winning have increased on the Polymarket platform, while Trump's support has slightly decreased. However, overall, Trump's chances of winning still exceed those of Harris.
Poll data shows that Trump still has a slight lead on some aggregation sites, with Harris and Trump’s support nearly tied nationwide, reflecting the tight race.
Voting for the 2024 U.S. presidential election officially began at midnight Eastern Time on November 5, with voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, being the first to cast their votes. Dixville Notch has only 6 voters. Currently, the voting results show 3 votes for Trump and 3 votes for Harris, resulting in a tie at the start.
Image source: x
Musk Predicts Trump Will Win Pennsylvania by a Landslide
Musk continues to support Trump, and after speaking at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on October 27 to endorse Trump, Musk expressed optimism about Trump's victory in an interview today (November 5, Eastern Time). "I am optimistic about Trump's victory. The biggest factor is that men need to vote. This is a message for the men: vote as if your life depends on it. Because I believe it does."
At 2 PM today, shortly after the first polling station in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, finished voting, Musk tweeted on X, stating, "Although Pennsylvania still leans Democratic, the voter turnout on Election Day is very high. If the number of people voting for Trump in person is the same as last time, he will win by about 500,000 votes (a landslide)."
Image source: x
BTC Options Data Shows Market Remains Bullish on BTC
According to Deribit data, except for the 6th and 7th around Election Day, the number of BTC call options far exceeds put options, indicating that despite certain macroeconomic uncertainties facing the Bitcoin market, the market predicts stability after the election results are announced, maintaining an overall bullish sentiment.
Image source: Internet
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin prices may experience a pullback, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days during the election. As traders choose to close positions for profit before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a significant victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, potentially reaching $125,000 by the end of the year and triggering a new wave of altcoin enthusiasm.
Conclusion
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is destined to be an extraordinary year, with the tie at the start of Election Day, Musk's high-profile support, and the volatility in the Bitcoin market all indicating that this is an election full of uncertainties. The developments in the election over the next few days will determine the policy direction of the United States for the next four years and will have far-reaching impacts on the global economic order.
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