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Today, let's talk about the price trend of Bitcoin. Currently at the position of $96,000, has it really hit the bottom, and when or at what point will it stop falling?

Bitcoin reached a high of $100,800, and its price trend has already peaked. We can see a large channel; after rising from the bottom, it has gone through two channels from a historical low point, which is the low point of the bear market after the last bull market ended at $73,000. After that, it consolidated for 8 months, and in November, after Trump's victory, it started a new upward wave.

This upward wave, when measured from the last time Bitcoin touched around $50,000, also just happened to go through two channels. In fact, the overall height of these two channels is equal, or we can call them two super wave shapes, known as Wave 1 and Wave 3.

Wave 1 is a complex wave, meaning the entire process is relatively tortuous, and it rises slowly. Wave 3 is a rapid upward trend, which means after Trump's and Musk's victories, it quickly broke through the upper boundary of this flag pattern and reached the peak of $100,800.

At this point, we can find that Wave 1 and Wave 3 are equal. As for whether there will be a Wave 5 later, Bitcoin needs to undergo a pullback in Wave 4, and this point is a pullback of Wave 2, which lasted for 8 months. During this time, Bitcoin's price will have a pullback wave of Wave 4.

Currently, a pullback wave of Wave 4 is needed, and only after Wave 4 is completed can the structure of Wave 5 possibly begin. So, whether Wave 5 equals Wave 1 or Wave 3, we know that Wave 1 equals Wave 3, therefore, Wave 1 and Wave 3 are very likely to be long waves, and Wave 5 is also very likely to be a short wave.

So what is the approximate position of Bitcoin's price for the pullback of Wave 4? According to channel theory, Bitcoin's price generally pulls back to a channel after every two upward waves. So, based on this theory, Bitcoin's price is very likely to pull back to the lower boundary of the channel again, which means after rising two channels, it will fall back one channel.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is stuck at $92,000, meaning it has stopped falling at this point. It is still in a bearish market. My view is that Bitcoin is very likely to test around $80,000 in the coming months of January, February, and March, which is also the lower boundary of the first channel.

Therefore, $80,000 is very likely to be the low point of Bitcoin's pullback wave of Wave 4. Why do I say Bitcoin will not stop falling at $92,000? Because we can see that from the weekly chart level, Bitcoin's price has formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern at this point, which has covered the previous three candlesticks.

Currently, it is at the pin of the lower shadow after the first candlestick broke through, and $92,000 has been tested repeatedly, now for the fourth week. As for whether it can break, if it breaks, it will accelerate the decline. If it does not break, then Bitcoin will continue to consolidate at $92,000 and then push upward.

Is it possible for the upward push to end Bitcoin's pullback wave of Wave 4 at this point? If we measure according to this idea, then Bitcoin is at its 0.236 position here. If it is at 0.236, it indicates that this pullback wave is a very strong pullback, meaning the bullish momentum is very strong.

The first time Bitcoin's price made a super Wave 1, the magnitude of its pullback was very large, and it actually stopped falling at the 0.382 position. This 0.382 position belongs to a retracement, and of course, it also belongs to a deep pullback demand.

As for the pullback wave of Wave 4, it may have a deep pullback, for example, pulling back to the 0.382 position, which means if it pulls back to 0.382, it would be $85,000, and if it pulls back to the 50 line, it would be $78,000. I believe both points could potentially pull back to this position.

Therefore, we must prepare for the need or psychological construction for further pullbacks in trading, to avoid being caught off guard when it reaches this point, leading to not having more positions to enter.

So if it can touch the area of 382 - 50 line, my view is to enter boldly. This is our second possibility. Returning to the position, we just talked about the 0.236 position, $94,000 or $92,000, this place could also potentially end. We need to watch Bitcoin. However, from the perspective of Bitcoin's weekly engulfing line, it does not seem so optimistic.

From the daily chart level, it is currently slowly breaking down below the life line, and the direction of this life line has started to turn down, with a death cross appearing between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages.

Therefore, Bitcoin is repeatedly consolidating at $92,000, and we need to wait for when it will truly break down effectively. This point is also the 120-day bull-bear dividing line. First, look at $92,000, then look at lower positions of $88,000, and even lower at $80,000, patiently waiting for Bitcoin to show a new breakthrough direction.

In terms of the time cycle, when might Bitcoin's price hit the bottom or show a turning point? According to the equal cycle strategy, this strategy helps us judge the escape from the top at 519, and its accuracy is still very high.

So based on the equal cycle strategy, Bitcoin may have an important turning point in mid to late March. In terms of the time cycle, we need to pay attention to next year, which is in four days, New Year's Day, the first day of 2025. The first day is also the last day of 2024. Therefore, at this point, we need to pay attention to the time cycle while also monitoring the price pullback of Bitcoin.

Currently, the divergence at the daily level is still being repaired. Has it been completed? We need to see if Bitcoin can stabilize at $92,000 and then break upward vigorously; otherwise, Bitcoin will oscillate downward.

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