Original Title: Crypto + Agent: Endgame Thinking
Author: ABC Alpha Researcher
Translation: Scof, ChainCatcher
This article explores three key questions:
- Is Crypto + Agent a short-term concept hype, or an inevitable development trend?
- What are the inseparable and complementary intersections between Crypto and Agent?
- What stages will Crypto + Agent go through, and which stage are we currently in?
1. Is Crypto + Agent a short-term concept hype, or an inevitable development trend?
Before answering this question, we first need to understand the differences between artificial intelligence (AI), large-scale AI models, and agents.
AI is a broad concept that encompasses all forms of artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and agents. In recent years, with the rise of OpenAI, large models have become a hot topic. Currently, large models are mainly dominated by tech giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, each with its own large model. The core competitiveness of large models lies in computational power and data. Large models possess strong computational and reasoning capabilities, able to provide intelligent answers and even continuously self-correct. However, large models cannot make decisions autonomously or act in place of humans.
An agent is essentially a "proxy," an AI entity built on the foundation of large models that can make decisions autonomously and execute actions, replacing humans. Agents are a natural outcome of the development of large models.
It is important to note that intelligent applications and agents are two different concepts. Intelligent applications still require human decision-making, while agents have the ability to make decisions, execute actions, and adapt autonomously. Agents can be understood as AI versions of "humans," and they may even possess independent consciousness.
Moreover, agents are not limited to the crypto space. Agents are currently the hottest research topic in the entire AI field. The development of AI will inevitably lead to the rise of agents, which has become a consensus in the industry.
Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, has repeatedly mentioned in public that agents are a key direction for the future of AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently stated that agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by agents. (This is also why AgentOS is popular in the market.) AI experts even refer to 2024 as the "Year of the Agent." Therefore, the wave of agents is not a new concept created by the crypto industry, but a natural progression of AI technology reaching this stage, coincidentally intersecting with the development of crypto.
Understanding these basic concepts allows us to better grasp the essential differences between the current wave of Crypto + Agent and the previous trend of Crypto + AI.
In the past, we have heard many concepts about Crypto + AI, such as distributed AI computing power networks, distributed AI computation, and decentralized AI data ownership, all attempts to build distributed AI systems through blockchain's "incentive mechanisms." However, after years of exploration, people have realized that this approach does not work, as it is impossible to build efficient and powerful AI large models through distributed incentives. Distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiency, which contradicts the high productivity goals of AI.
Therefore, large models, as the infrastructure of AI, need to be efficient, and combining them with crypto seems forced, making it difficult to form a true consensus.
However, agents, as intelligent entities, conceptually resemble "humans." Agents can act as proxies for individuals, taking on roles with specific expertise or serving specific organizations. For example, investment research agents (like #AIXBT or #TRISIGMA) are intelligent entities capable of creating and outputting research and investment value. Similarly, influencer agents (like #Luna) can provide brand marketing services, while investment agents (like Ai16Z) can offer investment services. These agents are similar to "humans," having various needs such as personal development, social interaction, economic needs, and societal demands.
These intelligent entities can engage in commercial cooperation. For instance, the investment agent Ai16Z may want to hire the influencer agent Luna to promote its investment capabilities and brand, while Luna may need to hire the research agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to analyze Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide reports. So, how will these agents cooperate and settle payments?
Currently, no country or organization can provide identity verification or establish asset accounts for agents to meet these needs. Even if such services were possible, it would be difficult to gain the trust of agents, as they are inherently borderless. Therefore, they need a borderless, always-on identity system, asset accounts, and settlement network.
You will realize that unless it is crypto, existing technologies or organizations cannot solve these problems for agents.
Agents, as intelligent life forms or "silicon-based life," will have various autonomous needs and business affairs; they require identity, asset accounts, transaction settlements, etc. Crypto can perfectly address these needs.
Thus, without crypto, these "silicon-based life forms" will lack independent identity, asset accounts, and the ability for commercial interaction. Agents will be isolated individuals, unable to truly cooperate, exchange ideas, or develop higher intelligence. Without crypto, a true AI economy or even an AI "nation" cannot form.
Therefore, agents cannot exist without crypto. Crypto endows agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, transforming them into true intelligent life forms—essentially becoming "silicon-based humans." Conversely, the future development of crypto also relies on agents, as agents can create a large number of "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies" for crypto. Unlike carbon-based life forms (humans) that exist off-chain, crypto is more closely linked to silicon-based life forms (agents) that live on-chain.
Crypto seems to be born for agents!
After 16 years of development, crypto has finally found its true "residents" in 2024—not carbon-based humans living off-chain, but blockchain-native silicon entities.
Therefore, from this perspective, is Crypto + Agent merely short-term hype?
No, if you miss the wave of Crypto + Agent, you will miss the most exciting, fascinating, and wealth-creating super cycle in the development history of crypto. More importantly, you will miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI revolution.
2. What is the intersection between Crypto and Agents?
You can understand agents as "intelligent life forms" or "silicon-based humans." These silicon-based humans live in the digital world, just as carbon-based humans live in the physical world, and they have similar needs. Agents require identity verification, asset accounts, transaction interactions, social networks, artistic creation, access to information from the physical world, and cross-chain settlements.
Crypto can meet all these needs for agents:
- In the crypto space, we will see the emergence of decentralized identity systems (DID) for agent identity verification
- Agent accounts providing trusted crypto accounts for agents
- Crypto gateways specifically for transaction settlements between agents
- Social graphs for managing agent social networks
- Art platforms for auctioning and trading agent-created artworks
- Oracles providing real-world data for agents
- Cross-chain protocols enabling agents to transact across different blockchains
- DAO structures for agent governance
The development needs of agents are inseparable from crypto, as they require a trustless, borderless, always-on network to evolve from individual agents into a society or even an agent nation.
From these future perspectives, the current development stage of Crypto + Agent is still in a very early phase.
3. What stages will Crypto + Agent go through? Which stage are we currently in?
The development of Crypto + Agent may go through four stages:
Stage 1: Concept Stage of Crypto + Agent
In this stage, agents primarily issue assets through crypto. For example, we may see meme agents like #fartcoin and #Goat. At the same time, we will witness the emergence of basic agent infrastructure and simple application agents, such as the GAME framework from #Virtual, the Eliza framework from Ai16Z, and the AI Rig Complex framework from ARC. Some infrastructure agents and application agents, like research agents AIXBT and TRISIGMA, as well as scientific paper review agents YNE, will utilize crypto tokens as internal incentive mechanisms for ecological growth.
Currently, we are transitioning from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto + Agent has not yet fully realized its potential, we can vaguely see the infinite possibilities that may emerge in the future.
Stage 2: Maturity Stage of Crypto + Agent Infrastructure
In this stage, the agent infrastructure becomes more mature. Various agent frameworks stabilize, allowing anyone to easily deploy different agent applications using natural language. These application agents will become smarter, with stronger decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents will become true proxies, and in some cases, may even completely replace humans.
Crypto will continue to play an important role in incentivizing the development of agents, and advancements in large models and AI technology will further accelerate this process.
In this stage, we will see the FDV (Fully Diluted Value) of agent framework projects range between $10 billion and $50 billion, with some application agents potentially achieving higher market valuations due to their strong commercial capabilities and execution power. These agents will gradually replace experts, organizations, and even entire industries, with their valuations comparable to professional companies.
At this point, agents will begin to interact frequently and engage in commercial transactions, creating new social and economic demands, with crypto playing a crucial role in meeting these needs. This will further deepen the integration of crypto and agents, laying the foundation for new Crypto + Agent economies and communities.
Stage 3: Deep Integration Stage of Crypto and Agents
As agents begin to generate more complex social and economic activities, new demands for agent identity, agent asset accounts, agent social networks, agent settlement gateways, and agent governance DAOs will emerge. In this stage, crypto will fully unleash its potential in cross-border cooperation, trustless networks, and continuous 24/7 operations.
Crypto will allow agents to interact with each other, exchange ideas, build social organizations and economic networks, and give rise to higher forms of intelligence. "Agent nations" will begin to take shape.
At this point, Crypto + Agent projects will reach valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Stage 4: Agent Nation Stage
In this stage, crypto may no longer be discussed as an independent industry or term, as it has seamlessly integrated into the infrastructure of agent nations. Agents will no longer view crypto as a separate entity; it will become part of their core social operations.
Agent nations will rely on crypto to maintain operations across identity systems, asset systems, transaction systems, governance, and more.
The economic scale of Crypto + Agent nations will reach trillions of dollars, comparable to the global economy of human nations.
In this stage, Crypto + Agent nations will represent a parallel universe, with more residents, more transparent social rules, more prosperous economies, and more advanced technologies and scientific civilizations.
This may be the ultimate endgame of Crypto + Agent and humanity itself.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
