Last week, the price of BTC steadily rose, with daily candles closing in the green for 7 consecutive days, returning to $100,000. After hitting a low of $91,530.45 on December 30, the price rebounded, increasing for 7 days straight. As of January 6, BTC reached a high of $102,724.38, with a maximum weekly increase of 11.35%. Currently, the real-time price of BTC is $101,812.95. The price trend of ETH is similar to that of BTC, rising for 7 consecutive days and climbing to $3,744.83 on January 6, with a maximum weekly increase of 13%. The current price of ETH is $3,683.14 (data sourced from Binance spot market, January 7, 12:16).
This week, selling pressure has decreased, and market liquidity has recovered. The strong rebound of BTC has driven other popular cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL to rise, enhancing bullish sentiment in the market. However, market trader Crypto Scient believes that $100,000 remains a key turning point for BTC. Unless BTC converts $99,000 into a long-term support level, the price may retest the $90,000-88,000 range.
Market Analysis
As of January 6, 2025, the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies reached $3.65 trillion, an increase of 6.7% from last week's $3.42 trillion. Among them, the U.S. spot BTC ETF has performed remarkably, with total on-chain holdings surpassing 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the total BTC supply, valued at approximately $106.8 billion. This week, net inflows into the U.S. spot BTC ETF reached $240 million, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $38.9 billion, further solidifying its position as a significant capital entry point in the market.
Bullish sentiment in the BTC options market, traders betting on a price breakout above $120,000
Data from Deribit on January 6 shows a significant increase in options activity with strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000, reflecting strong expectations from traders for further price increases. Currently, the open interest for call options with a strike price of $120,000 has reached $1.52 billion, making it the most popular contract type on the Deribit platform. With Trump's inauguration approaching, the BTC market is exhibiting new optimism, particularly evident in the performance of the options market.
Meanwhile, the put/call ratio for all expiration dates has dropped to 0.24. This low ratio indicates that the trading volume of call options far exceeds that of put options, highlighting market confidence in BTC's upward price movement. Additionally, the price pullback at the end of December caused BTC to briefly touch $91,000, but it has since quickly rebounded to $101,000, further reinforcing the market's optimistic outlook on the upward trend.
As Trump is about to take office, the market is keeping an eye on potential favorable policy changes, and the activity level in the BTC options market may become a leading indicator for future price movements.
Miner selling pressure and exchange inflows both decline, supply tightening supports mid-term bullish outlook for BTC
On January 6, Bitfinex reported that the liquidity inventory ratio of BTC has significantly decreased from 41 months in October 2024 to 6.6 months, with continued outflows from exchanges. This week, only 200,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, and the unrealized profit rate for short-term holders has dropped to 12%. The increase in stablecoin supply also indicates that market capital reserves are ample, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. During the same period, BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have continued to decline, further alleviating market selling pressure and strengthening the mid-term bullish expectations for BTC.
At the same time, the outflow of BTC from miners to exchanges has also significantly decreased, indicating a slowdown in miner selling pressure. Data from CryptoQuant shows that on November 11, 2024, miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, reaching a peak, but by early January 2025, this number had dropped to between 2,000 and 5,000 per day. The change in miner behavior reflects their preference to hold positions in anticipation of price increases.
The dual effect of reduced supply and decreased selling pressure lays a solid foundation for BTC's mid-term rise. As the market's chip structure stabilizes, BTC's upward trend is expected to continue.
Institutional and corporate accumulation accelerates, BTC is expected to break $200,000 in 2025
On December 31, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted that BTC prices would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with continued accumulation by institutions and corporations being the core driving force. Since the beginning of 2024, institutions have purchased 683,000 BTC through channels such as the spot BTC ETF and MicroStrategy.
On the corporate side, the "BTC accumulation plan" has become a trend. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, "Since last Monday, 11 publicly listed companies have purchased more BTC. 2025 may be a significant milestone for more companies to adopt the BTC standard." Japanese listed company Metaplanet plans to increase its BTC holdings to 10,000 by 2025 to promote global adoption.
The dual effect of accelerated institutional buying and alleviated supply conditions lays a solid foundation for BTC's mid to long-term rise in 2025.
Trump-themed Memecoins lead the way, altcoin sector sentiment warms up
On January 7, the U.S. Congress officially confirmed Trump's election as president, and his crypto-friendly policy expectations have driven related tokens to rise. The Trump-themed Memecoin TRUMP has risen for 3 consecutive days since January 4, with a cumulative increase of over 80%; MAGA, TRUMPCOIN, and others have seen increases close to 100%, but have since pulled back. However, family project World Liberty Financial's holdings of LINK, AAVE, and other tokens have not shown significant upward momentum.
Market sentiment has turned optimistic, with the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rising to 78, entering the "extreme greed" zone. BTC's return above $100,000 has driven a general bullish sentiment in the market, but the altcoin sector has shown mixed performance. SOL has once again broken through 220 USDT, AVAX has risen by 6%, while SUI has pulled back to 5 USDT after reaching a new high.
The ETH ecosystem has seen a brief pullback, with LDO down about 3% and ENA down nearly 10%. Despite positive market expectations, volatility remains a core focus in the near term, and investors should be cautious of short-term pullback risks.
Market Highlights
Federal Reserve reserves fall below $3 trillion, reaching the lowest level since 2020
On January 3, according to Federal Reserve data, U.S. bank system reserves fell to approximately $2.89 trillion for the week ending January 1, dropping below the $3 trillion mark, the lowest level since October 2020, and recording the largest single-week decline in two and a half years, decreasing by about $326 billion.
Year-end regulatory requirements have prompted banks to reduce balance sheet activities, with funds flowing from banks to the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) tool. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to remove excess cash from the financial system through its quantitative tightening (QT) program, further tightening liquidity. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy and their potential impact on the banking system.
BTC mining difficulty hits a new high, miner revenue reaches $1.44 billion
The mining difficulty and hash rate of the BTC network continue to rise. On December 30, 2024, BTC mining difficulty was adjusted up by 1.16% to 109.78 T, setting a new historical high, with the average network hash rate reaching 804.04 EH/s. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to increase to 111.20 T. Despite improvements in mining machine efficiency, the rapid growth of global hash rate and rising energy costs put pressure on mining profitability.
In this high-difficulty environment, miner revenue remains strong, with cumulative revenue reaching $1.44 billion in 2024. Large mining company MARA reported that it achieved $8.7 million in interest income in the first three quarters by optimizing resource utilization and lending strategies, while its powered hash rate reached 53 EH/s. As competition intensifies, miners need to continuously optimize their strategies to maintain profitability in a fierce market.
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