The first week of 2025 was a bearish one for bitcoin. The number one crypto dropped from $102,431 to $91,215, and despite the price rebound to the $95,000 level, the weekly candle is expected to close bearish.

According to Matrixport’s weekly report, global liquidity shifts and macroeconomic difficulties may cause bitcoin to enter a consolidation phase. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies may limit future growth despite steady ETF fund inflows.

The report highlights that Fed policies impact bitcoin’s price action more than ETF launches with liquidity trends often leading bitcoin‘s price movements by approximately 13 weeks.

Inflows into bitcoin ETFs have stalled after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, largely staying the same from their record-breaking high of $35.9 billion. The stagnation of capital inflows could be due to the Fed’s hawkish approach with investors awaiting more clarity on monetary policy.

Historical analysis of bitcoin’s performance shows that a dovish stance is more suited to a bitcoin rally than a hawkish stance. Earlier in 2024, bitcoin’s rally began when the Fed adopted a dovish tone in January. However, an indecision on rate cuts in March led to a six-month consolidation before a massive uptrend in Q4 when the Fed turned dovish again. Despite Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, the Fed’s hawkish stance may limit another significant rally.

The report ends with a suggestion that traders consider call and put options as a cost-effective way to protect bitcoin gains while maintaining exposure to potential market movements.

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