Although I have been writing about the RWA ecosystem in my recent articles, what I am most concerned about and think about the most is still the AI agent track and the potential trends of the overall cryptocurrency market.
In the current cryptocurrency ecosystem, I believe there are still two vibrant areas that have formed a certain scale and garnered considerable attention:
One is the meme coins that have been trending since the beginning of this market cycle; the other is AI agents.
Let's first look at meme coins.
A few days ago, the president of a Central African country launched a meme coin, and then Binance actively listed several meme coins. Later, a few exchanges listed a coin that has been heavily promoted offline for the past few years.
Many players have strong opinions about them, but in this free world, these phenomena are something we will inevitably see.
I have not participated in these coins, so I maintain a neutral stance.
However, the attention these coins have garnered still surprised me to some extent. Upon reflection, I realize it reflects a sense of helplessness and fatigue within the ecosystem.
The surprise comes from my initial belief that even if public figures were to issue their own meme coins after Trump launched his coin, those coins probably wouldn't stir up too much emotion.
Because Trump is considered a top-tier meme coin.
Yet even this top-tier coin quickly experienced a wave of ups and downs in its market. This kind of market likely drained the spirits of many players in the ecosystem, right?
How many players will continue to participate in such games moving forward?
Even in a casino, one cannot be overly excited every day; at least a break is needed, right?
Yet on social media, they remain a hot topic of discussion among many players.
This further indicates that since the bear market of the previous cycle, the cryptocurrency ecosystem has seen too few and too weak breakthroughs in applications and business models.
Thus, participants can only gamble on waves of emotional value.
Reflecting on the breakthroughs in applications and business models in this market cycle, I believe the only one with real potential and the possibility of further development is likely the AI agent.
Other tracks like gaming and DeFi may have hope, but even if they do, I feel it comes from the drive of AI agents rather than their own intrinsic motivation.
As for RWA, I increasingly feel that while it is related to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the connection is not that significant. More precisely, this track, closely related to regulation and centralized institutions, finds it difficult to spread its influence across other tracks in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Returning to AI agents.
Although AI agents have not been a hot topic in the ecosystem recently, some top projects in this track are still working hard on their development, which is very encouraging and touching.
Those who can persist in building during tough times and avoid the spotlight while continuing to work quietly are not only admirable figures but also pillars of the ecosystem and the hope for its future.
However, in the short term, due to the recent market trends of AI agents, especially the price movements of related tokens being interrupted by two major external events, it will require greater and more intense stimulation and innovation for the AI agent track to regain its previous energy and attention.
For instance, we need an AI agent that is more prominent than AIXBT and can better demonstrate application value and actual value to revitalize this ecosystem.
This is no small challenge, but I still hope for a miracle to occur.
The sooner this miracle happens, the greater the hope for the entire ecosystem to restart. If it is delayed, the hope will become increasingly dim.
The above are the potential driving forces within the ecosystem. I have always believed that this is the core driving force for ecosystem development. If the core driving force is too weak, the entire ecosystem will face a clear ceiling in the upcoming market trends.
If we consider a less optimistic scenario, if the aforementioned miracle does not occur and no other miracles appear in other tracks of the ecosystem, then the basic determinant of the upcoming market trends will primarily be external driving forces.
Currently, the only two important external driving forces I can think of are both related to U.S. policy:
One is Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic reserves.
The other is the regulation of POS staking rewards.
In the long term, Bitcoin being included in the U.S. strategic reserves will undoubtedly have a positive, far-reaching, and significant stimulating effect on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
However, in the short term (for example, this year), how significant that effect will be is probably what we are most concerned about right now.
In this regard, we can look at a reference point:
Currently, more than 10 states in the U.S. are incorporating Bitcoin into their reserves.
However, in the face of such open and certain news, has the market trend of Bitcoin improved significantly during this period?
It seems not.
Therefore, I think we should take a more conservative view of the short-term impact of Bitcoin being included in the U.S. national reserves.
As for the potential loosening of POS staking regulations, I believe that even if such policies are introduced, their impact will be limited, or rather, until we see the emergence of real commercial scenarios and application models in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, their effect will be very limited.
So overall, how the entire ecosystem trends next, in the absence of other miracles, will increasingly depend on the development of AI agents.
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