The US dollar has experienced three periods of sustained depreciation in the past:

The first was during Nixon's era in the 1970s, the second during Reagan's era with the Plaza Accord in 1985, and the third was from the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 to the financial crisis in 2008 during George W. Bush's presidency.

Let's take a look at the performance of different assets. First, gold performed well during Nixon's and George W. Bush's periods, but it was quite average during Reagan's era.

As mentioned earlier, gold acts as a put option for the dollar. During Nixon's time, it was evident that the gold standard was abandoned, and from 2000 to 2008, there was a significant backdrop of the dollar interest rate hitting 0 for the first time, both of which clearly marked the weakness of the dollar. In contrast, Reagan's era marked the beginning of America's third industrial revolution (internet + semiconductors + computers), so although the dollar became cheaper, confidence actually increased.

Stocks, on the other hand, performed quite the opposite of gold, showing mediocre performance in the first and third periods, while performing well during Reagan's time.

So, which period does this current situation resemble more? If Trump can successfully achieve 1/ reducing the deficit 2/ depreciating the dollar by about 50% 3/ appropriately bringing back manufacturing, and even merging with Canada/Mexico, then I would lean towards it resembling Reagan's era more. The US may not become great again, but it will be much better than now.

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