Market Overview
Trump ignites recession panic, U.S. stocks plummet, the Nasdaq closed down 4%, marking the largest drop in over two years, and the S&P, which fell nearly 3%, hit a six-month low, while the Dow dropped nearly 900 points, erasing gains since the election; Tesla plummeted 15%, marking its largest single-day drop in over four years, halving from last December's record high, Nvidia fell over 5%, Apple dropped nearly 5%, and Palantir fell 10%; Oracle initially rose about 6% after hours but then turned negative; the China concept index fell over 3%, with Alibaba down nearly 6% and Li Auto down 5%. Novo Nordisk's European stock fell over 8%.
U.S. Treasury prices surged, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping over 10 basis points; the dollar rebounded, with the dollar index moving away from a four-month low; the yen hit a five-month high. The offshore yuan fell over 200 points during trading, approaching 7.27. Bitcoin dropped over $7,000 during trading, falling below the $78,000 mark, hitting a four-month low.
Gold fell about 1% to a one-week low during trading. Crude oil fell to a six-month low, dropping nearly 2% at one point.
Market Review:
Yesterday, BTC accelerated its decline after opening, rebounding after initially hitting a bottom. The Asian and European sessions saw a continuous rebound approaching the daily support level of 83,000. After the U.S. market opened, accompanied by the dismal plunge of U.S. stocks, BTC was once again pressured below the daily support of 83,000, hitting a new low of 77,100 in the evening, with a minimum of 77,300. The daily fluctuation was 7,000 points, and after the morning opening today, it hit a new low of 76,550 before quickly rebounding, currently stabilizing above 80,000.
Yesterday, I was relatively optimistic about a short-term rebound below 83,000, but the day continued with a one-sided trend of decline, refreshing the new low. The current price is in a chaotic fourth wave, with significant volatility and confusion between bulls and bears.
Market Outlook:
As shown in the BTC four-hour chart, this wave of decline started from the high point of 110,000, with the first bottom at 78,000 rebounding to 95,000, indicating short-term stabilization. The previous extreme weakness has come to an end. The market has entered a new phase, characterized by chaotic fluctuations in the fourth wave. Currently, within the boxed area in the chart, price movements are disordered, with chaotic up and down movements being the main theme; there are no clear bulls or bears. Only disorderly fluctuations exist.
Short-term stabilization and fluctuations, will the larger trend see a bottom? The answer is negative; after the fourth wave of significant fluctuations, there will still be a major fifth wave decline. The 519 event may repeat in the future. Therefore, short-term bottom-fishing is not recommended.
A wave is a wave; of course, on the daily line, short-term bullish attempts can be made, buying on dips below 83,000, as ultra-short-term issues are not significant. The fluctuation range is large, and positions need to be kept light.
As shown in the chart, the last wave of one-sided decline started from 92,800, reaching a low of 76,550 last night, with a one-sided decline of over 10,000 points. The previous daily support level of 81,700 has now moved up to 83,000. Therefore, as mentioned in the previous article, the market will only reward those who are proactive and perceptive, and will not favor followers or latecomers! Do not operate any short positions below 83,000; I emphasize again, 83,000 is the new daily support level after the previous 81,700 daily support was moved up!
It is expected that the price will not stay below 83,000 for too long.
During the day, the Asian and European sessions have rebounded from the low of 76,550 to 81,550, with a rebound of 5,000 points!
How to view the short-term during the day? The idea of not operating any short positions below 83,000 should continue. In the evening, it is recommended to continue to look bullish on dips. Do not turn bearish just because there has been a significant rise; this is the fourth wave, which is characterized by disorderly fluctuations. As shown in the chart, the current price is also at the lower boundary of the fourth wave, so the evening still looks bullish on any pullbacks!
The fluctuation range is large, and market changes are rapid. For more real-time price alerts and layouts, please pay attention to real-time updates!
Be calm in your heart, and do not panic in your hands; take it easy!
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The above analysis and predictions are merely the personal probabilistic forecasts and judgments of the navigator regarding the market. Speculation carries risks; please invest cautiously!
2025.3.11 Navigator in the Crypto Circle
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