Market Overview
The danger of a U.S. government shutdown has been lifted, the S&P 500 has seen its strongest rebound since the presidential election, with the S&P and Nasdaq both rising over 2%, but still experiencing four consecutive weeks of decline. The Dow Jones fell over 3% for the week, marking its largest weekly drop in two years. Nvidia rose over 5%, gaining 8% for the week, marking its first weekly increase in four weeks. Tesla rebounded nearly 4%, but still fell nearly 5% for the week. Apple dropped over 10% this week. Quantum computing stock D-Wave surged nearly 47%, while QUBT rose 29%.
The China concept index rose nearly 3%, with Pinduoduo and NIO both gaining over 3%. Germany's historic debt plan is about to pass, defense stock Rheinmetall rose over 6%, and the pan-European stock index rebounded over 1%, still recording the largest weekly drop of the year.
After the release of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a daily high; the dollar index briefly erased its losses. The offshore yuan rebounded over 200 points during the day, approaching 7.23. Bitcoin briefly rose over $5,000, breaking through the $85,000 mark.
Crude oil rebounded, reversing the weekly decline, with U.S. oil seeing its first weekly increase in nearly two months. Futures gold closed above $3,000 for the first time, rising 3% this week.
Market Review:
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a unilateral rise during the day, with a total intraday volatility of 5,100 points, hitting a low of 80,200 and a high of 85,300, closing with a small upper shadow and a large bullish body.
We have repeatedly reminded everyone that the current trend is in a fourth wave of fluctuation, with chaotic ups and downs, but we clearly informed everyone not to operate any short positions below 83,000. After the market opened yesterday morning, we clearly indicated that the probability of a large bullish day was extremely high at 80,600 and 80,800. In the evening, the system signals were almost all bullish. Throughout the day, we repeatedly reminded everyone not to operate any short positions, as the probability of a large bullish day was extremely high.
In the U.S. session, after the price rose over 3,000 points, we decisively suggested continuing to go long, targeting around 84,700, and then directly taking profits. Before resting in the evening, we indicated that any pullback with a large bearish candle would be an opportunity to go long. There would not be any shorts during the day.
Market Outlook:
As shown in the chart, we previously indicated that this wave down from 110,000 is currently in the fourth wave of fluctuation, with the fourth wave being chaotic. The daily chart is also clear, showing back-and-forth fluctuations. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the large fourth wave is within the circles. The large frame represents a large range of fluctuations, while the small frame represents the current small-level fluctuation range. Today, being Saturday, the market's volatility is relatively slow. After a unilateral rise yesterday, the market is slightly retreating for repair today.
Weekend volatility is slow. It is expected that the price will maintain a fluctuation above 81,800, and overall it should maintain the strong characteristics of the previous trading day! Therefore, the short-term suggestion for the day is to continue to go long during the weekend pullback!
Do not buy spot trades, as it is clearly indicated here. It is just a fluctuation; after the fourth wave, there will be a fifth wave of decline. It will be quite severe at that time. Therefore, do not consider buying any varieties in the short term, especially altcoins, as the risks are extremely high later on!
Be calm and composed in your mind, and do not panic in your hands!
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The above analysis and predictions are merely the personal probabilistic forecasts and judgments of the helmsman regarding the market. Speculation carries risks; please invest cautiously!
2025.3.15 Helmsman of the Crypto Circle
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