I agree with Hong Hao's viewpoint.

First, it is important to confirm one point: BTC is currently a risk asset, akin to a leveraged Nasdaq. You cannot apply the logic of gold to BTC; you may consider it digital gold, but the market views it as a risk asset. Therefore, how you and I perceive it is not important; what matters is how the market sees it.

You still need to look at the overall trend of the U.S. stock market. Various signs indicate that Trump may intentionally be stirring up a recession, which would allow for a rapid reduction of interest rates to 0, and then bring down the 10-year Treasury yield, followed by the Treasury issuing long-term bonds to replace existing short-term debt.

It is important to note that the U.S. government debt is $36 trillion. A 1% drop in interest rates equates to $360 billion, which is equivalent to raising tariffs by 10 percentage points. A 2% drop in interest rates would be $720 billion… and so on.

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