Trading Moment: CZ brings hot BNB on-chain market, global central banks welcome "Super Week"

Trading Moment: CZ Drives BNB Chain Market, Global Central Banks Welcome "Super Week"

1. Market Observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Bitcoin closed last week with a bullish candle, rebounding nearly 10 points from a low of $76,600. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that it is currently difficult to determine whether Bitcoin will regain an upward trend in the short term, suggesting to close short positions at this stage. He pointed out that Bitcoin may need to undergo a consolidation period of up to 8 months. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with the ETF market lacking "buying the dip" momentum. Most ETF capital inflows are driven by arbitrage-focused hedge funds, while persistently low funding rates also suppress the willingness to deploy further capital.

Bitfinex analysts believe the current adjustment is a normal "washout" behavior. Although several technical indicators have turned bearish, Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains an important factor influencing its price. Due to Bitcoin's high correlation with traditional financial markets, its movements may need to sync with the stock market (especially the S&P 500) to find a bottom. He noted that the $72,000 to $73,000 range constitutes a key support zone, but Bitcoin's next movements will primarily be dominated by macro factors such as global government bond yields and stock market trends. Although the impact of the trade war has been somewhat digested by the market, ongoing economic pressures may further dampen market sentiment. Notably, network economist Timothy Peterson predicts, based on historical seasonal patterns, that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high before June, with a median target price of $126,000.

Economist Peter Schiff warned that a 12% drop in the Nasdaq index could signal a larger decline for Bitcoin. He analyzed that if the Nasdaq enters a bear market and drops 40%, Bitcoin's price could fall to $20,000. In contrast, gold has shown a negative correlation with the Nasdaq, rising 13% since December 16, 2023.

In terms of market dynamics, a recent poll by Data For Progress shows that 51% of American voters oppose the government including cryptocurrencies in its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, the number of Bitcoins held by the hacker group Lazarus Group has reached 13,562, making North Korea the third-largest Bitcoin-holding national entity in the world. On the other hand, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao's weekend purchase of TST and mubarak with BNB may lead to a recovery in BNB chain market activity. GMGN data shows that in the past 24 hours, seven meme coin projects have exceeded a market cap of $1 million, with mubarak's market cap rising to nearly $150 million.

From March 17 to 23, major global central banks will welcome the highly anticipated "Super Week," with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England, holding monetary policy meetings. The market generally expects central banks to maintain interest rates, but investors need to closely monitor the central banks' assessments of the economic outlook. Especially in the context of uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies, the central banks' stance may significantly impact market sentiment.

2. Key Data (as of March 17, 13:30 HKT)

Bitcoin: $83,149.42 (Year-to-date -11.15%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $24.523 billion
Ethereum: $1,895.97 (Year-to-date -43.22%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $10.533 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 32 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.48 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 60.77%, ETH 8.4%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, STMX, VANA
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.998
Sector Performance: The crypto market sector generally declined, with the CeFi sector up 2.71% and the RWA sector up 0.72%
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 94,553 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $257 million, including $95.26 million in BTC and $44.77 million in ETH.