Research: The Behavior Shift of Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Highlights "Unique Market Dynamics"

CN
21 hours ago

Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

The Bitcoin pullback phase hit a four-month low of $76,600 on March 11. However, a new study shows that despite the price drop, long-term holders continue to hold a significant amount of Bitcoin, indicating that "unique market dynamics will emerge in the future."

Glassnode noted in a market report on March 18: "The activity of long-term holders remains largely subdued, and their selling pressure has significantly decreased."

As Bitcoin's price rebounds, the selling pressure from long-term holders (wallet addresses holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days) has begun to weaken.

The binary spending metric is an indicator used to determine when long-term holders continue to spend a large proportion of their holdings. This metric shows a slowdown in spending velocity (see the chart below), while the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has also started to rise after months of decline.

Glassnode pointed out: "This indicates that the willingness to hold Bitcoin among this group is greater than the willingness to spend." They added: "This may represent a shift in market sentiment, with long-term holders transitioning from selling to holding."

Bitcoin: Long-term holder spending binary metric. Source: Glassnode

A typical sign of a bull market peak is when long-term holders face significant selling pressure and strong profit-taking behavior, marking a complete shift in market sentiment to bearish.

However, Glassnode stated that despite Bitcoin's decline in recent weeks, this investor group continues to hold a large portion of their profits, especially in the later stages of this cycle.

This may suggest that long-term holders still expect Bitcoin's price to rise further later this year.

"This interesting observation may indicate that more unique market dynamics will emerge in the future."

Bitcoin: Long-term holders have accumulated realized profits. Source: Glassnode

According to CryptoQuant data, new Bitcoin whales (wallet addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC with an average holding time of less than 6 months) are actively accumulating Bitcoin.

This signals strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook among the new large investors.

These wallets have collectively acquired over 1 million BTC since November 2024, "positioning themselves as one of the most influential market participants," said CryptoQuant independent analyst Onchained in a March 7 analysis.

The chart below shows that their pace has accelerated notably in recent weeks, "accumulating more than 200,000 BTC just this month."

Bitcoin supply held by new whales. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, several crypto executives have told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s recent price drop was a “normal correction,” with the market just waiting for a new narrative and a cycle top yet to come.

But not everyone agrees. For instance, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said that the Bitcoin bull cycle is over. He added:

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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