Today's main point in the space is that it is currently driven by "events," with various events influencing data, which in turn affects U.S. monetary policy and the trends in risk markets.

For example, increasing tariffs on Europe by 25% should have no relation to Bitcoin, but the European tariffs are aimed at counterbalancing support for Ukraine. The end of the Russia-Ukraine war could offset U.S. inflation and provide support for tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could facilitate interest rate cuts, thereby supporting liquidity and indirectly affecting investor sentiment and willingness to invest.

Events often carry a high degree of uncertainty, so in the short term, they can disrupt trends. However, the larger trend will inevitably shift from monetary tightening to monetary easing. It's just that events influence the timing of this process, but they are unlikely to change the outcome.

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