1. Digital Assets Have an "Official Household Register": IMF Issues "ID Card" for the Crypto World for the First Time

"Is Bitcoin a currency or a commodity?" This question, debated for ten years, now has a new answer from the IMF. In the seventh edition of the "Balance of Payments Manual" (BPM7) released on March 20, 2025, the IMF accomplished two major tasks:

1. Issued "ID cards" for digital assets: For the first time, cryptocurrencies are included in the global economic statistical framework, ending the debate over whether "Bitcoin counts as an asset."

2. Clarified the boundaries between "good students" and "bad kids": Digital assets are divided into "fungible tokens" and "NFTs," and further categorized based on "whether there is a safety net" into two types—

• "Wild child" camp: Unbacked assets like Bitcoin are classified as "non-productive non-financial assets," tossed into a corner of the capital account;

• "Good student" representatives: Stablecoins and other backed currencies receive a formal military license as "financial instruments."

Analyst's spicy comment: This is akin to issuing a "global passport" to the crypto world, but the IMF is also hinting—want to replace the dollar? Not a chance!

2. IMF Sounds the Alarm: Central Banks Beware, Don't Let Crypto Assets "Steal Your Jobs"!

In the face of the rapid advance of crypto assets, the IMF has taken on the role of "class monitor," drawing three red lines for governments:

1. "Prohibition of usurpation" clause: No crypto asset may be granted legal tender status; "the dollar's hegemony must not be shaken";

2. "Tightening spell" warning: A call for a globally unified crypto regulatory framework, focusing on three major risks—

• Capital flow rollercoaster: Beware of hot money using stablecoins to cross borders and "play guerrilla warfare";

• Legal vacuum zone: The accountability issues following DeFi protocol failures and exchange collapses;

• Monetary policy failure: The Salvadoran-style "Bitcoin experiment" could cause central banks to lose their grip on interest rate control.

1. "Carrot" temptation: The IMF rarely acknowledges that blockchain technology can enhance cross-border payment efficiency, even suggesting that central banks develop CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) to "fight magic with magic."

On-chain data corroboration: According to Chainalysis, the scale of cross-border payments made through stablecoins is expected to surge by 320% year-on-year in 2024, indicating that the IMF's concerns are not unfounded.

3. A Song of Ice and Fire: How to Balance the "Risks" and "Opportunities" in the Crypto World?

The IMF's report reads like a "health check report," pointing out the "pathologies" of the crypto world while also prescribing a "treatment plan":

Risk Section: When "Decentralization" Collides with "Sovereign Iron Walls"

• Risk of monetary policy "misses the target":

  If the public holds USDT en masse instead of their national currency (like the Argentine peso), central bank interest rate hikes or cuts become "punching at air";

• Fiscal black hole warning:

  The Salvadoran government's Bitcoin holdings have already incurred a loss of over 60%, and the IMF warns that "state trading in cryptocurrencies" could trigger a sovereign debt crisis;

• Underlying currents of "regulatory arbitrage":

  A Southeast Asian exchange is circumventing IPO scrutiny by issuing "security tokens," and such gray operations will fall under global regulatory scrutiny.

Opportunity Section: The IMF Quietly Offers a "Memorandum of Cooperation"

• CBDC accelerator:

  China's digital yuan e-CNY has been integrated into Hong Kong's fast payment system, which the IMF praises as "compliant with standards";

• Cross-border payment "highway":

  The "Multi-Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge" project tested in collaboration with Ripple and the IMF compresses SWIFT settlement time from 3 days to 3 seconds;

• DeFi "compliance" experiment:

  The Monetary Authority of Singapore has approved the first regulated algorithmic stablecoin protocol, and the IMF hints that "such innovations are worth encouraging."

Analyst insight: The IMF's attitude resembles that of a strict parent— you can play the crypto game, but you must do so under my rules!

4. Global Game: Who is Secretly Rewriting the IMF's "Crypto Script"?

Behind this report lies a "digital currency cold war" among major powers:

• United States: Openly rejecting while secretly accepting

  While opposing the legalization of Bitcoin, it allows BlackRock to issue "tokenized funds"—the dollar's hegemony is seeping onto the blockchain through stablecoins;

• European Union: Compliance pioneer

  The MiCA legislation requires exchanges to "operate with licenses," effectively paving the way for euro stablecoins;

• Emerging markets: Surviving in the cracks

  Nigeria was forced to lift the ban on Binance simply because its local currency, the naira, depreciated by 40%—the IMF's warning instead confirms that "poor fiat currencies create a strong demand for crypto."

On-chain war revelations: As the IMF attempts to "draw a line" around crypto assets, Tether's USDT market cap has already surpassed $200 billion, exceeding the total foreign exchange reserves of Russia. This contest is far from over.

Conclusion

The IMF's report serves as a "coming-of-age ceremony" for the crypto world—acknowledging your existence but requiring you to dance in regulatory shackles. For investors, understanding the subtext of this "crypto constitution" is crucial:

• Short-term bearish: Global regulatory tightening may lead to market volatility;

• Long-term bullish: Compliance will attract trillions of dollars in traditional capital.

Just as the declaration at the birth of the Bitcoin white paper stated: "We believe in mathematics, not politicians." Now, the game between mathematics and politics is quietly escalating in the IMF's conference room.

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