1. Market Observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

Bitcoin seems to be getting drained by gold, with spot gold breaking through $3100/ounce this morning, setting a new historical high. Goldman Sachs predicts it could reach $3300 by the end of the year. In contrast, Bitcoin closed down last week and is currently fluctuating around $82,000. Economist Peter Schiff warns that if gold rises to $5000, Bitcoin could drop 95% from its 2021 peak, falling to $10,000. Additionally, on-chain activity over the weekend was relatively quiet, with BNB chain's popularity gradually fading. Despite SOL's nearly 60% pullback from its historical high, trader Eugen is still building long positions at $125, believing that the sharp fluctuations between $88,000 and $82,000 provide a good risk-reward ratio.

Market data shows that since 2025, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector has shrunk by $610 billion, with about 800 dormant Bitcoins recently transferred, valued at $674 million, heightening market concerns. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone states that if Bitcoin cannot regain stable growth, altcoins may face larger sell-offs, and ETH could even drop to $1000 later this year. However, not everyone shares a pessimistic view. Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, predicts that by 2030, 25% of S&P 500 companies will include Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Currently, publicly traded companies hold a total of 665,618 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.17% of the total supply, with MicroStrategy dominating with 506,137 Bitcoins. Meanwhile, Zhu Su has observed in Hong Kong that some family offices are closely watching Michael Saylor's strategy and considering adopting a similar Bitcoin reserve model.

Furthermore, the regulatory environment continues to improve, with several positive factors emerging. Crypto-friendly Paul Atkins is set to become the SEC chairman, which may facilitate the unlocking of Ethereum ETF staking and lead to more digital asset ETFs being approved. Additionally, U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation is expected to be introduced in May, potentially positioning Bitcoin alongside gold as a sovereign-level asset. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is also developing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, with related bills entering the legislative council for review. Meanwhile, Panama has announced a draft cryptocurrency bill that plans to recognize digital assets as legal payment tools. The U.S. FDIC has rescinded the policy requiring banks to obtain prior approval for providing crypto services, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter the crypto market.

However, the macro environment remains full of uncertainties, and the market is facing multiple tests. Capital Flows analysis suggests that for Bitcoin to break through $100,000, macro liquidity needs to undergo sustained changes; otherwise, if the stock market declines, Bitcoin could pull back to the $72,000-$75,000 range. The market generally believes that amid escalating global trade frictions and rising uncertainties, gold's safe-haven appeal continues to strengthen. Bank of America analysts point out that the current market is experiencing five major disruptive changes, including the end of the U.S. "big government" era, the transformation of tech stocks, EU fiscal stimulus, the end of deflation in Japan, and the recovery of Chinese consumption, all of which will profoundly impact market direction. Additionally, the tariff adjustments on April 2 and the non-farm data on April 4 are expected to be key variables for short-term market trends.

2. Key Data (as of March 31, 13:30 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $82,117.28 (Year-to-date -12.33%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $17.854 billion

• Ethereum: $1,806.71 (Year-to-date -46.01%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $12.316 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 34 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 0.35 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 61.4%, ETH 8.2%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, LAYER, BTC, ETH, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9928

• Sector Performance: The crypto market saw a general decline, with the PayFi sector down 3.71% and the Meme sector down 2.88%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 75,806 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $217 million, including $65.18 million in BTC and $64.10 million in ETH.

3. ETF Flows (as of March 28 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$93.16 million

• Ethereum ETF: $4.68 million

4. Today's Outlook

• ZKsync Incentive Program Ignite Q1 Deadline, Planning to Allocate 100 Million ZK

• Four.meme will switch to PancakeSwap V2 liquidity scheme and burn new token LP on March 31

• Terraform Labs will open a crypto asset loss claim portal on March 31, with a deadline of April 30

• Binance Launchpool will launch GUNZ (GUN) on March 31 at 21:00

• mtnDAO announces unlimited sale of $MTN tokens on MetaDAO Launchpad

• ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF ETFs under Ark Invest will change their primary listing venue to Cboe BZX

• Binance will delist USDT and other non-compliant stablecoins for European users

• TON Foundation collaborates with Jupiter to incubate a new DEX on the TON virtual machine, with winners to be announced on March 31, 2025

• Japanese Bitcoin company Metaplanet conducts a 10:1 stock split

• Jupiter: Appeals for addresses mistakenly labeled as witches or bots will close on April 1

• Binance will delist GALA/BNB, PERP/BTC, USDT/CZK, USDT/RON trading pairs

• IOST: Snapshot has been executed, airdrop query portal is expected to go live on April 1

• Cayman Islands introduces new cryptocurrency regulatory framework with new licensing requirements, effective April 1

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 AM on March 31, representing 1.93% of the current circulation, valued at about $23.8 million;

• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 1, representing 2.03% of the current circulation, valued at about $152 million;

• ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 1, representing 6.05% of the current circulation, valued at about $13.2 million;

• dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 AM on April 1, representing 1.09% of the current circulation, valued at about $5.4 million.

Today's top gainers among the top 500 by market cap: X Empire (X) up 27.61%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) up 17.08%, Concordium (CCD) up 10.44%, CZ'S Dog (BROCCOLI) up 9.95%, LayerZero (ZRO) up 9.39%.

5. Hot News

• Weekly Preview | Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs" Effective April 2; Terraform Labs Opens Crypto Creditor Claim Portal

• This Week's Macro Outlook: Trump Flips the Table, April 2 May Become a Global Asset Watershed

• Data: Tokens such as SUI, W, ENA to Experience Large Unlocks, with SUI Unlocking Valued at Approximately $152 Million

• Metaplanet Announces Issuance of 2 Billion Yen Zero-Coupon Bonds, Proceeds to be Used for Bitcoin Purchases

• Spot Gold Breaks Through $3100/Ounce on Monday, Setting a New Historical High Again

• Analysis: Financial Giant Vanguard Group May Indirectly Enter Cryptocurrency Through GameStop Bitcoin Reserves

• Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Probability and Tariff Rate Expectations

• Movement Labs Deposits 17.15 Million MOVE into Coinbase, Valued at $7.74 Million

• Japan's FSA Considers Classifying Crypto Assets as Financial Instruments and Regulating Internal Trading

• Vitalik Buterin's "Cat-Calling" Behavior Sparks Discontent in the Ethereum Community, He Has Not Yet Responded

• A Whale That Lost $15.72 Million Trading TRUMP Re-Buys Over 333,000 TRUMP

• Report: From March 2021 to 2025, Average Liquidity of Each Token's Stablecoin Decreased by 99%

• Total User Count of South Korea's Top 5 Crypto Exchanges Reaches 16.29 Million, Accounting for 32% of the Total Population

• El Salvador Accumulates 8 More Bitcoins in the Past 7 Days, Total Holdings Reach 6,131.18 Bitcoins

• NFT Trading Volume Rebounds 4.5% to $10.28 Million in the Past 7 Days, CryptoPunks Trading Volume Surges 140%

• Cryptocurrency Daily Trading Volume Falls from $126 Billion Peak During U.S. Elections to $35 Billion, a 70% Drop

• MARA Plans to Launch $2 Billion ATM Equity Issuance Plan, Barclays and Other Financial Institutions to Participate

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