Hey, crypto friends, today let's talk about a big issue—the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy has officially landed! This has been brewing since Trump took office. On the morning of April 3, the market exploded, with Nasdaq futures crashing 5% and Bitcoin dropping to $82,000 at one point. This is no small matter; it feels like an economic nuclear bomb has been thrown, affecting the global economy. Next, I’ll walk you through how this move will impact the world economy and the crypto space.

1. Impact on the World Economy: Is Trade War 2.0 Coming?

First, let's talk about the world economy. This reciprocal tariff policy, simply put, is "an eye for an eye." Starting April 5, the U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all regions globally, and from April 9, an additional higher special tariff on 60 specific regions. Sounds familiar, right? Yes, it’s reminiscent of Trump’s trade war back in the day, but this time it’s harsher and more comprehensive. The goal is clear: reduce the trade deficit, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and conveniently save some money for the treasury.

But it’s not that simple! The global supply chain is already like a spider web; if you move one part, everything else gets tangled. For instance, major U.S. trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada are likely to have headaches. With tariffs added, export costs will soar, and U.S. consumers will have to pay more, immediately increasing inflation pressure. Not to mention other countries may retaliate; Canada has already threatened retaliatory tariffs, and the EU is sharpening its knives, preparing to counterattack. If this escalates into a full-blown trade war, global economic growth will take a hit.

In the short term, the U.S. economy might enjoy a little sweetness, as tariffs can bring in more revenue, estimated to increase by $400 billion, and bringing back manufacturing isn’t just a dream. But in the long term? Economists are sweating, fearing "stagflation"—economic stagnation combined with soaring inflation. Think back to the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922, which dragged global trade into the mud with high tariffs, ultimately leading to the Great Depression. Will history repeat itself? It’s hard to say, but the market is already scared; that 5% plunge in Nasdaq futures is no joke.

2. Bitcoin: Short-term Pain, Long-term Gain?

Now, let’s look at Bitcoin. With the implementation of these tariffs, Bitcoin was caught off guard, plummeting from around $100,000 to $82,000, a drop of over 10%. Why? Because BTC is currently closely tied to risk assets; when the market panics, everyone rushes to sell risk assets, and BTC naturally gets swept along. Additionally, the tariffs may push inflation higher, raising expectations for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which is not good news for BTC as a "zero-yield asset."

But don’t rush to conclusions; Bitcoin is quite resilient. While it has dropped in the short term, I believe there’s still potential in the long run. Why do I say that? First, the inflation and economic uncertainty triggered by tariffs may lead more people to view BTC as "digital gold" for hedging. Over the past few years, every time there’s been a stir in the global economy, Bitcoin has found opportunities to rebound. For example, during the "mask" period in 2020, BTC surged from over $10,000 to over $60,000. Looking at the current situation, the Trump administration has been relatively friendly towards cryptocurrencies; he even mentioned creating a "national Bitcoin reserve," which is like a shot in the arm for BTC.

Another point to mention is that tariffs will significantly increase mining costs. The main Bitcoin miners are in China and North America, and most mining machines and chips are imported. With tariffs, the price of mining machines could rise by over 20%, leading to an estimated 17% increase in mining costs. Small miners will struggle, and even large mining companies may have to grit their teeth and bear it. However, this could actually push up BTC prices—if supply-side pressure increases, its scarcity becomes even more apparent. So, while BTC may experience some volatility in the short term, I remain optimistic in the medium to long term; $100,000 might just be the starting point.

3. Altcoins: Doomed to Follow Down but Not Up?

Now, let’s talk about altcoins. These little brothers have a relationship with big brother BTC that is truly "falling together but rising apart." With the tariffs in place, when BTC drops, altcoins are left scrambling. Why? Because altcoins are riskier than BTC and are highly speculative; when the market shakes, funds flee here first.

However, altcoins are not completely out of the game. The impact of tariffs on them is somewhat similar to BTC but also a bit different. For instance, ETH is even more correlated with Nasdaq than BTC, so when U.S. stock futures crash, ETH naturally follows. But ETH has its own fundamental support—DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts are still developing, and it has long-term potential. Similarly, altcoins linked to the real economy, like VeChain (VET), which is related to supply chains, may find opportunities amid the chaos of global trade caused by the tariff war.

That said, altcoins have a major problem: poor liquidity and a large number of retail investors. The market panic triggered by these tariffs is likely to cause many small coins to "go to zero." Therefore, in the short term, altcoins are likely to continue "falling together but not rising," and only a few top projects will survive this winter. For those looking to buy the dip, be cautious and don’t dive headfirst into a pit.

4. What’s Next? Watch These Points

The impact of these reciprocal tariffs has just begun, and how things unfold will depend on several factors:

1. The response from other countries: If Canada, the EU, and China push back hard, escalating the trade war, both the global economy and the crypto market will shake even more.
2. The Federal Reserve's reaction: If inflation truly rises, will the Fed raise interest rates? By how much? This is key for BTC and altcoins.
3. Trump's crypto policy: If he really promotes a "Made in America" crypto industry, such as supporting BTC mining and establishing a national reserve, market confidence could improve significantly.
4. Market sentiment: Don’t underestimate the power of retail investors; once this wave of panic passes, will people rush back to scoop up BTC and altcoins?

5. Advice for Investors

Finally, let’s talk about some practical advice. In the face of this tariff shock, what should ordinary investors do? Here are a few suggestions:

• BTC: Don’t rush to buy the dip in the short term; wait for market sentiment to stabilize. If it can hold around $82,000, consider building a position gradually.
• Altcoins: Focus on top projects; avoid small coins. Strong ecosystems like ETH and BNB are still worth considering.
• Cash is king: With such high uncertainty, keep some cash on hand; it’s better to wait for opportunities to arise.

Overall, the U.S. reciprocal tariff situation is a double-edged sword in the short term, and both the world economy and the crypto market will take a hit. But in the long run, BTC may seize the opportunity to rebound, and there could be dark horses among altcoins. As bystanders, let’s keep an eye on the situation and look for the right moment to act! If you have any thoughts, feel free to leave a comment for discussion!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。